'One can sum up all this by saying that the criterion of the scientific status of a theory is its falsifiability, or refutability, or testability.'
Sir Karl Popper, Austrian-British philosopher & professor, 1902
Our competitive-edge lies in our unique investment philosophy that is more robust than economic models or stand-alone strategies. As Karl Popper wisely said above, any theory that is sound must be able to withstand the test of falsification. One failed test is enough to prove its fallacy regardless of the number of confirmations previously.
The overlay of our investment philosophy with Multi-Strategy (global macro/CTA, long-short global equity, value & event driven) Investing deeply enhances our investment analysis and decision-making. This is what makes us different from the 'crowd'. This gives us an edge, not only to outperform, but also protect our downside risk. By anticipating trends that are bullish or bearish early, we minimize risks and capture alpha returns that we can lock in when markets go into euphoric bubbles or panic crashes.
Both bull and bear markets are conditions that we maintain our composure steady and systematically manage our portfolio to avoid risks and major market corrections. The Art of War by Sun Tzu, The Tao Te Ching by Lao Tzu and Confucian philosophy help us to build dynamic frameworks to defend and attack at appropriate times in the financial battle field. Numerous military & business leaders in the past have tested the Art of War and its efficacy. We can buy 'put options' and short via futures to hedge our portfolio against impending recessions, 'black swan' events and market downturns that traditional investments can't.
Dynamic Asset Allocation helps us reduce risks, capture start of new trends and exit old ones. Having an initial balanced stance of 20% in 5 Asset Classes of Currencies, Equities, Bonds, Commodities and Cash. We can dynamically shift via active rebalancing on a quarterly or monthly basis according to changing market environment to avoid risky overvalued assets. We look forward to add unique systematic strategies to enhance our investment process and competitive edge.
Sustainability of the competitive advantage is our key concern. Can this be repeated in a consistent non-emotional manner? Our answer is yes, because any investment strategy today need a multi-faceted lens to be consistent using macro-economics with inputs from history, philosophy and psychology. As financial markets are more than economics and finance, making risk hard to quantify, our emphasis on our unique Investment philosophy connects with market sentiment closely. This allows us to detect positive or negative feedback loops in market prices that are near or far from equilibrium & reality.
OUR GOLDEN RULE: "ANTICIPATE" NOT REACT TO MARKET EVENTS.
4 Mar 2022 market newsletter: 'War + Inflation = Fear’, World stands with Ukraine."
“If you lay siege to a town, you will exhaust your strength.”
Sun Tzu, Art of War ancient Chinese philosopher
High inflation just got hotter just as climate change worsen and with a Russian invasion of Ukraine on Feb 24 that took the media by storm and after 4 days of slow progress by Russian forces, Putin decided to put the world on high alert with ‘nuclear deterrent’ force. This is quite like the Cuban missile crisis in 1962 when J.F Kennedy managed to defuse with an agreement with Nikita Khrushchev to remove missiles from Turkey and Russia to remove them from Cuba (That was a Chinese ‘Tiger’ year like 2022)
As the quote above by ancient Chinese strategist Sun Tzu on the disadvantage of ‘laying siege to a city’ which Russia had done and puts itself at risk of failing as the world is with Ukraine and against any violence especially unprovoked.
We will see if this turns out true in coming weeks. But the market sentiment turned negative as fear has gripped investors as high inflation data and war in Ukraine that disrupts supply chains. Also, in Art of War, Sun Tzu said: ‘When you engage in actual fighting, if victory is long in coming, then men’s weapons will grow dull and their ardor will be damped.’
We wrote in our last month’s market report while being generally bullish despite inflation, warned of a ‘black swan risk – military conflict that add fuel to high inflation and oil’:
“The ‘black swan’ event is a military conflict or major political event that disrupts supply chains which in turn raise inflation and oil prices, leading to a sharp fall in business and consumer confidence. The risks are low but if it occurs, a market correction to 3984 support level (20% pullback) would be likely.”
ESG investing has gotten more important as the recent IPCC report showed the environment got worse than expected and the Ukraine war resulted in many well know companies ceasing to do business in Russia. The social and governance part of ESG is just as important as the E, Environment.
As we had mentioned in last month’s report, oil prices trending from $88 – 110 is likely as rise in supply is not enough. “OPEC+ on a gradual increase in output would not help as previously agreed 400,000 barrels in March may be insufficient to stop the rally especially as geo-political tensions in Ukraine-Russia and Middle-east exist.” output. The US-Iranian deal will help to increase output of 1.3mil barrels a day and together with US’s SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) and European Allies to release 60mil barrels, it could create a “psychological effect” of higher supply and result in oil prices falling back to mid $80s. It is in the interest of the free World for oil price to fall as Putin’s regime benefit from it. Commodity feedback loops that drive prices higher via fundamentals & sentiment are interlinked. The “classic cure for higher prices is higher prices”.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell on Mar 2: “Russia-Ukraine war has injected uncertainty into the outlook. Powell said he sees a series of quarter-percentage-point increases coming, though he left open the possibility of moving more aggressively should inflation persist.”
- As such, it is good to keep positive and stay bullish in the mid-term as the war may be toned down over time and the inflation rate slowed down by Fed rate hikes and supply chain improvements over the year. Otherwise, there are companies like Molson Coors, 3rd largest brewer in the world revealed their robust hedging strategy to counter inflation and raw material rising costs.
- With a war crisis, alternative assets like currencies and commodities are ideal to reduce risks. US Dollar’s bullish trend has gotten an extra boost. That would be a place to diversify money to instead of just keeping heavily weighted equity portfolios that most people rely on. Grains, metals, soft and energy commodities are in strong trends as we seen since last year and an ‘out of the box’ method to capture alpha returns and hedge inflation for companies. Most traditional fund managers are not well verse in this unfortunately, hence most clients have little exposure in commodities or hedges on down markets.
- In a war-inflicted market, the best course of action is to be neutral and slightly bearish with hedges on as the financial markets loses confidence the longer it drags on and energy prices spikes higher. The few sectors like defence, consumer staples and utility stocks may be possible places to look at i.e Tyson, TAP, ADM, RTX
- As a matter of defense, we had 2 bearish short-sell hedge in our Feb 3 market report: MCD and YUMC due to rising wheat/food prices and supply chain issues.
- Stocks with high exposure to Russia economy and raw material costs would be ones to look at (hedge short-sell). We put on short-term hedges on stock indices, SPY ETF and certain stocks (i.e Citigroup, Philip Morris, Pepsi, Tesla) as well while keeping FX and Commodities exposure. Having said that, we are cautiously optimistic Ukraine & the World will prevail against Russia earlier than expected.
- The ‘black swan’ event now has occurred but a further escalation of the Ukraine war can raise inflation and oil prices even more, leading to a sharp fall in business and consumer confidence. The risks that 3980 is broken is there and if it occurs, a potential correction to 3200-3400 support level (20-30% pullback from peak).
- We put on short-term hedges on stock indices, SPY ETF and certain stocks as well while keeping FX and Commodities exposure.
- Having said that, we are cautiously optimistic Ukraine & the World will prevail against Russia earlier than expected.
- Short-term Risk-Reward ratio for US S&P 500 index is poor as at 4300 level, potential upside at 4850 & downside at 3980/3400. Potential 12% gain with potential 20% loss.
“Markets are constantly in a state of Uncertainty and Flux.” George Soros
The Covid pandemic war is the first war or uncertainty that hit markets since 2020. The 2nd being inflation and rising commodity prices. 3rd being the Russian-Ukraine war. To understand how the 3 interplay is more complex and to anticipate scenarios is important to take into account defensive actions to hedge. Thus, a global macro/CTA/multi-strategy inherently looks for dislocations and try to see if all 3 are align and to act accordingly – bullish, bearish or neutral.
The re-opening continues to be in earnest in US and UK. The light at the end of tunnel for US with the most deaths due to Covid19 is the basis to be more positive. Thus, our overweight focus, where 2/3 of our capital is deployed into US stocks, bonds, commodities and currency markets remain. The unemployment rate falling to 3.8% is another bright spot that Jerome Powell said labor market was extremely tight, meaning close to full employment and resulting in higher wages, which isn’t a bad thing for a robust economy.
Thus, it is not all doom & gloom as our hopeful view of Ukraine and a firm US economy makes us vigilant for bullish opportunities as stock prices fall.
We end with our golden rule: ‘Anticipate’ not ‘React’ to market events.
History lesson: In this 1919 caricature (bottom left), Ukrainians are surrounded by a Bolshevik (to the north, man with hat and red star), a Russian White Army soldier (to the east, with Russian eagle flag and a short whip), and to the west a Polish soldier, a Hungarian (in pink uniform) and two Romanian soldiers. Old Ukraine map as independent nation in 1917 before USSR - Soviet Union was formed in 1922 and they even speak a different language from Russians. Wikimedia Commons:
3 Feb 2022 market newsletter – "Instead of hoping he must fear and vice versa."
"Instead of hoping he must fear and instead of fearing he must hope.”
Jesse Livermore, 19th century stock & commodity trader
The US stock market, S&P 500 stock index rose to new high of 4818 on 3 Jan 2022 before closing at 4515.55 on Jan 31. The 27% gain last year has long been forgotten as inflation and lower corporate earnings guidance for 2022 become prevalent.
Our target of 4845 was missed by 0.6%. But as we always knew, we can only anticipate as best as we can, not predict and used our risk management and dynamic asset allocation model to deal with the risks and any wrong analysis. But the stock index did test our support levels of 4400 and 4244 before reversing as we wrote last month: “A market correction is probable to 4400 level (10-12% pullback) but will likely setup for a rise to 5027 and 5372 in the mid-term.”
US retail sales rises 3% per year historically but in recent years due to the large fiscal and monetary stimulus, retail sales boomed by 10% in 2020-21. This big rise in demand with supply chain disruptions and Covid lockdowns had caused an inflationary spiral globally pushed higher by shipping and freight rates. US corporate earnings have potential to go beyond the record US$3 tril and strong stock buybacks.
As a global macro/multi-strategy fund, 'dynamic asset allocation' to other asset classes helps reduce risks and hedging using put options is one of the effective tools besides short-selling stock index futures, SPY ETF index and selective weak single stocks. The failure to diversify to other asset classes is a classic issue and the complacency that 'business as usual' for equity markets is typically why losses occur.
Not only were we believers of “re-opening stocks and sector rotation to value stocks”, we were concerned about technology stocks and we even warned against buying Apple stock on Jan 3 when it became the 1st US$3tril market capitalization company. Soon after Apple fell 15% until its results came out:
“But, now is the time to be cautious at such lofty valuations and without the founder Steve Jobs to create magic or ‘creative destruction’. All business cycles face periods of challenges as the profits rise 30% but the stock goes up an extra 50%.”
The recent 26% fall in Meta (Facebook) stock price in a day on slowing digital advertising growth was long overdue, while Alphabet (Google), Snap, Microsoft, Apple and Amazon reported better profits than expected. Digital marketing long been touted as the way to monetize new startups, help companies sell to more consumers and even create brand awareness may often be just a perception as the results had always been less than desired; reaping massive profits for the digital advertising firms, influencers, social media platforms and websites. Expect more casualties as regulation on cryptocurrencies, metaverse and NFTs are coming as the 'Wild West digital world' has undesirable effects for investors and social impact on teenagers.
Rollercoaster ride of Bitcoin continues but as a valid medium of exchange, store of value and inflation hedge or just a speculative asset class is highly debatable and a matter of perception; but it is vulnerable to abuse by self-serving promoters, fraudsters and money launderers. Holding US$35,000 support can keep positive action to test $70,000. But, only astute traders can trade in highly volatile 2-way markets.
The WHO (World Health Organization) data shows the current Omicron Covid pandemic has raised number of weekly cases by about 3x than in Mar 2021 however the death rate is only about half that.
The chart on the left above show vaccination rates globally is now 61% for 1 dose and fully vaccinated at 53%; not yet at 90%. For example, in US 63%, UK 71%, China 85%, India 51%, France 76%, South Korea 85%, Japan 79%, Canada 79%, Germany 74%, Thailand 69%, Indonesia 45%, Russia 48% and South Africa 28%. This Omicron wave may take a few more months to end globally and if history is any guide the 1918 Spanish Flu ended in 1920 April.
The chart on the right above shows how the progress globally on booster shots and this may longer to reach 60% levels. Covid vaccines is a big game-changer as we said last year when vaccines were approved by FDA and then rollout globally. But to defeat this pandemic war, boosters are needed to reduce the spread and further deaths and break the vicious circle.
The kind of vaccines used is also crucial as scientists had proven that Pfizer-BioNtech and Moderna has the highest efficacy and booster shots against the new variants. Countries that uses other vaccine makers may be at risk of spreading the virus if Omicron widens. An interesting research by Harvard researchers on 1918-19 Spanish Flu found correlation between “bad weather and the Spanish flu effect” and that may be useful for a study in 2020 Covid19 outbreak and climate change effects.
ESG investing should no longer be optional but a part of every investor's core approach. The time to sit back and wait for the scientists and politicians to debate about climate change is over.
ESG or Sustainability investing to us is looking for innovative solutions to 4 key areas – Environment, Education, Healthcare and Corporate Governance on a global level. Some examples are solar, wind & renewable energy firms, Electric transportation (cars, scooters, ships, yachts, buses and planes), vegan-meat companies, education-technology, global healthcare companies and strong global corporate governance (such as wages, diversity, net-zero carbon emissions, dividends, CSR etc)
The Biden infrastructure plan will boost electric charging and renewable energy projects; in line with US's goals to be net zero by 2050, 50-52% reduction by 2030 and 100% clean power sector by 2035. Much needed R&D in these areas will spur jobs and new innovations, plus enlarge the investable ESG universe.
The inflation and rising raw material costs is not to be dismissed as we wrote last month:
A) “The rise in oil, natural gas and gasoline prices rallied in December and is on a trend higher to test multi-year highs. The probable target range is $85-110 (high in 2009 at $150 will be far out but not impossible).
Crude oil prices had risen to $88 in Jan 2022 making the appreciation over 70% from 1 year ago and more than 5x from lows in Apr 19, 2020 when oil went negative. WTI oil price have risen almost 20% so far and with OPEC+ on a gradual increase in output would not help as previously agreed 400,000 barrels in March may be insufficient to stop the rally especially as geo-political tensions in Ukraine-Russia and Middle-east exist. The 2020 negative oil prices had forced OPEC to cut production drastically and now is a time for them to reap what they sow as supply constraints and oil companies under pressure by COP26 climate change agreement to cut back fossil fuel exploration and put more resources to expand renewable energy output.
B) Rising food prices due to higher wheat, soybeans, grains, coffee and corn prices are not going to reverse soon due to fundamentals of supply & demand (due to climate change/bad weather that affect crop harvest). Commodity feedback loops that drive prices higher via fundamentals & sentiment are interlinked. The “classic cure for higher prices is higher prices”.
The chart on the top of rising wheat futures prices over 3 years. Wheat is used for bread, noodles, muffins, pasta, biscuits, cakes, cereal bars, sauces and beer too. Wheat feed or bran is used for feeding animals chickens, horses, cattles, sheeps, pigs etc. Basically, almost all we consume daily depends on wheat and the rising price would be passed over to consumers to some extent but not fully as food producing firms that don't own the farms or flour mills trying to absorb the higher costs for now, but not for too long.
Wheat prices is looking likely to test multi-year highs of 2010-12 having risen 18% from last year and 62% from lows in 2020. The inflation now is quite similar to 1918-20 Spanish Flu/World War 1 1914-18 period as Wheat rose 400% from 1915-1920; pig iron rose 300% and cotton 400%.
Overall, current food prices had risen at the fastest pace in 13 years as US Labor Department recorded a rise of 6.5% in 2021. The data showed that Fast-food restaurants raised prices by 7.1% in 2021 due to inflation.
See below for summary table of rising commodities prices:
Steel (US Midwest CRU)
% gain in 2022
% gain from 2021
% gain from 2020
650% (using $17 low)
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell on inflation and dealing with it on Jan 11: “If we see inflation persisting at high levels longer than expected, then if we have to raise interest more over time, we will.”
US inflation rate for Dec rose to 7% from a year ago, 40 year high and CPI rose 0.5% vs Nov. Taking out food and energy, core inflation rose 5.9%. Wages also have jumped 5.7%. Inflation is a big issue now but yet doing too little or too much may hurt sentiment, hence Fed's communication tool box matters.
The historical trend of PCE – Personal Consumption Expenditures excluding food and energy from 1930 vintage on left chart and we can draw some conclusions: The current PCE inflation has gone above 1992 high and it remains to be seen if Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes alone can stop the inflation trend from going higher. It may be reminiscent of the 1967 run up to 1971 followed by a fall in 1972-73. The outlier event risk would be a similar 'big leap forward from 1974 to 80'. Obviously, history does not repeat exactly but it can have some similar patterns.
Source- US Bureau of Economic Analyses (from St Louis Fed)
The US Dollar is in a bullish trend change as the Fed rate hikes for 2022 could be 4-5 and a reduction in Fed's 8tril balance sheet would result in lesser debt issuance, making US Treasuries more attractive and result in a dollar demand; as inflation and rate hikes will make USD a better alternative asset class than JPY, EUR, AUD or GBP.
The need for more US dollars as oil prices are likely to trend above US$100 and many countries need to be prepared. BOE hikes second time due to inflation and sharp rise in consumer prices. ECB and BOJ have been hesitant to act to raise rates for now.
Away from technology stocks, there are other growth stocks with good opportunities in 2022 such as Boeing, Macy’s, Coursera, Kraft Heinz, TSMC, Global Foundries, United Health, Tyson Foods, Beyond Meat, Moderna, Hilton, Marriott and OTIS.
The slide in Covid19 stocks like Stay-at-home and Work-from-home (and some China tech) stocks last year are still not over as classic ‘sector rotation’ tactical strategy that some investors either chose to disbelieve or were ignorant due to lack of guidance by their advisers.
Thus, we had 2 bearish short-sell hedge in our Jan 3 market report: Peloton and Nvidia which both fell over 20% (see chart on left)
The ‘black swan’ event is a military conflict or major political event that disrupts supply chains which in turn raise inflation and oil prices, leading to a sharp fall in business and consumer confidence. The risks are low but if it occurs, a market correction to 3984 support level (20% pullback) would be likely.
Short-term Risk-Reward ratio for US S&P 500 index is quite good as at 4500 level, potential upside at 4953/5072 & downside at 4400/4244. Potential 10-12% gain with potential 6% loss.
3 Jan 2022 market newsletter – "Calibrate not follow."
“If you realize all things change, there is nothing you will try to hold on.”
Lao Tzu, ancient Chinese philosopher 571 BC
The US stock market, S&P 500 stock index rose to new high of 4808 on 30 Dec 2021 before closing at 4766 on Dec 31. The 27% gain is twice the average target by most bank analysts.
Our own target of 4404 was exceeded and we did a quick reassessment to realize we were not positive enough and rectified it to 4848 in Sep 2021 and to 4953 in Oct 2021.
The full vaccination rates globally is now close to 60% and the re-opening of economies is a natural extension of human nature and civilization. No one wants to be stuck at home 24 hours or be deprived of eating in a cafe or exercise at the gym. The game-changer we said last year was when vaccines were approved by FDA and vaccine rollout globally.
Thus, our new forecasts for S&P 500 index in the near term is 4850 and 4953. A market correction is probable to 4400 level (10-12% pullback) but will likely setup for a rise to 5027 and 5372 in the mid-term. (median forecast of Wall St analyst is 5050)
The only ‘black swan’ event is any military conflict or rise in geopolitical tensions that disrupts supply chains which in turn raise inflation and oil prices, leading to a sharp fall in business and consumer confidence. If that happens, a major correction to 3984 support level (20% pullback) would occur and may spiral even lower depending on how severe it is.
The valuations of some stocks and certain markets are concerning especially in the crypto space. There is little evidence that Bitcoin is a valid medium of exchange. Inflated assets of properties in some countries, art and US technology stocks would need to adjust to new reality of inflation, supply chain disruptions, weaker consumer demand and cost of regulation.
The Covid19 stocks like Stay-at-home and Work-from-home (and some China tech) stocks had a large reset last year. That was a classic ‘sector rotation’ tactical strategy that some investors either chose to disbelieve or were ignorant due to lack of guidance by their advisers. Regardless, it was a good hedge for us by taking the bearish short-sell which was just recognizing that change is the only constant and the path of least resistance prevails.
The rise in oil, natural gas and gasoline prices rallied in December and is on a trend higher to test multi-year highs. The probable target range is $85-110 (high in 2009 at $150 will be far out but not impossible). Given that OPEC+ to increase oil supply by 400,000 per day in Jan may only be 130,000 bpd and probably 250,000 in Feb due to production constraints of Angola and Nigeria. The demand side is firm but likely to grow in Feb-Mar onwards as booster vaccines and peak in Omicron occurs, opening air travel and work in office. COT, Commitment of Traders report shows commercials and producers are net long while speculators / non-commercials are short – support for higher prices. The Biden infrastructure plan will boost construction activity.
Rising food prices due to higher wheat, soybeans, grains, coffee and corn prices are not going to reverse soon due to fundamentals of supply & demand (due to climate change / bad weather that affect crop harvest). Commodity feedback loops that drive prices higher via fundamentals & sentiment are interlinked. The “classic cure for higher prices is higher prices”.
The US Dollar is in a bullish trend change that is likely to ebb and flow with Fed tapering ending in March and rate hikes could result in a dollar demand as on the Dec 16 Fed chairman had given his most frank assessment of inflation as potentially being entrenched. The world order of US dollar would only change in the event of a global conflict or China monetary holdings of US Treasury or peg exchange rate changed dramatically. The strategic oil reserves that US have may partially mitigate to some extent how rising energy prices hits its economy.
As a global macro/multi-strategy fund, 'dynamic asset allocation' to other asset classes helps reduce risks and hedging using put options is one of the effective tools besides short-selling stock index futures, SPY ETF index and selective weak single stocks. The failure to diversify to other asset classes is a classic issue for investors. The complacency that 'business as usual' for equity markets is typically why losses occur.
Apple became the 1st US$3tril market capitalization company and we highlighted in our last month’s report that it is the ‘most innovative & positive thinking’ company globally. We were bullish in Jan 2021 at $130+ price level but became neutral as it rose to $150 and at $180, it rose 35%. But, now is the time to be cautious at such lofty valuations and without the founder Steve Jobs to create magic or ‘creative destruction’. All business cycles face periods of challenges as the profits rise 30% but the stock goes up an extra 50%. But Steve Jobs has a great quote: ‘You can’t connect the dots looking forward, you can only connect them looking backwards’ (you can’t extrapolate and expect things to go straight line’).
There are other value stocks with equally good opportunities such as Boeing, Macy’s, Coursera, General Mills, Kraft Heinz, Global Foundries, Moderna, Hilton, Marriott, and OTIS (chart below).
The speculative fever in Bitcoin at $46,000 would not end soon until major regulation by US or UK occurs that may result in a panic crash. The rise above $60,000 and reversal may be due to institutional traders re-assessing if the central thesis as a medium of exchange or store of value hold true, besides being another investment asset class. Support level of $35,000 is critical for bullish action to test $70,000. Only astute traders can trade in highly volatile 2-way markets.
Short-term Risk-Reward ratio for US S&P 500 index is mediocre as potential upside at 4953 & downside at 4400. Potential 3% gain with potential 9% loss.
3 Dec 2021 market newsletter – "Positive Thoughts, 1 small step for man."
The US stock market, S&P 500 stock index rose to new high of 4743 before a correction to 4501 low on Nov 30, about 5% correction from the high. Last month, we warned a correction in the bull market is possible given the gains this year: “Risk-reward ratio for US S&P 500 is not great as potential upside at 4689/4845 & downside at 4210 – 3980, Potential 5% gain with potential 9-14% loss and key support levels: 4539 & 4210 (200 DMA)”
The S&P 500 hit our support level at 4539 and could test 4404 our previous target now turn support (see chart above). The trend is still bullish and a test of 4400 (key support) to change the trend higher for the Christmas rally is probable. The 'positive thoughts' since Covid19 vaccines were found will not fade easily.
Our Oct 2021 report: “A higher target of 4600 to 4848 may be feasible in 2022 once the 'weak hands & Robin Hood' traders are shaken out. Of course, nothing is cast in stone when it comes to the markets especially with runaway inflation, interest rate expectations, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's nomination for 2022, US mid-term elections in 2022 that could change the power dynamics and a slowing growth situation in China ...”
We re-assessed the market conditions and conclude that the Fed tapering of US$15bil per month was not fast enough. 2020 stimulus would push mid-term target higher, unless a 'black swan' event, the downside may find support at 4090 and 3980.
Our Nov 2021 report: “The targets we set at 4244, 4404 and 4500-4600 short-term targets have been exceeded and our new target of 4689 before 4848 for 2022. Support level on the downside is at 4400 and 200day moving average at 4210 (capping a 10% minor correction). The resistance at 4953.”
The OPEC+ to increase oil supply by 400,000 per day in Jan due to fear of omicron variant and US overture. This may delay the rally in prices but not change the trend. The demand is still strong as growth rates are likely to stay firm and supply chain issues still clearing the backlog. Commodity feedback loops to drive prices higher as fundamentals and sentiment are interlinked. The probable target range is $80-100 next year (high in 2009 at $150 may not be impossible in 2022).
Throughout 2021, we highlighted Sector rotation away from 'Stay home or WFH-work from home' stocks to Re-opening/value stocks, our Apr 2021 report:
“Sector rotation (these are trends not to be dismissed) - As technology stocks fell in Mar, value stocks rose & fell: Many value stocks underwent a correction...these stocks had risen more than 20-30% in the last 3- 6 months. Sector rotation is likely to be continue in 2021. Prof Robert Shiller, Nobel Laureate and famed author of 'Irrational Exuberance' said last year of Covid19 vaccines, a game-changer.”
In May 2021, we wrote: “The ones to be really concerned about or even consider hedge (short-sell) are China stocks in general (BABA, JD, PDD, BIDU and TME are on decline since peak in last few months; worst the online education stocks GSX, TAL and EDU; EV firms like NIO and LI are all in bear territory). We can make some educated guesses that selling started due to regulation by China authorities and also US legislation requiring China listed ADRs to similar stringent audit as other listed firms in US or risk being delisted. Archegos liquidation of some Chinese ADR stocks can explain part of the selling but not all. It is better to let the market tell us what to do rather than seek reasons to justify holding on.”
In June 2021: “Too many investors are still in the era of 'Work from Home' and hold large chunks of stocks that carry much risk. A portfolio of high quality equity, bonds, currencies and commodities would be more resilient given the market risks as over speculation in cryptocurrencies and single stock names have raised complacency. We remain bullish commodities but prices are near our short-term targets (refer to Cross-Asset Class section). JP Morgan CEO Dimon one of the most vocal CEOs said to end Zoom meetings and return to office by July, same for Citigroup CEO and Google. Apple and Microsoft are also encouraging workers to return by June.”
Some of the 'Covid stocks' above have fallen (Year-to-date, YTD Dec 3, 2021): Zoom -43%, Clorox -17%, Teladoc -50%, Peloton -70%, New Oriental Education, EDU -88%, TAL Education -90%, GSX (new name GOTU) –95%, Las Vegas Sands -40%, Baidu -31%, Alibaba -47%, JD.com –10%, Pinduoduo -69%, NIO –25%, Docusign -39%.
This is what we call “high risks of holding single stock names, not being diversified and being rigid in analysis” (In contrast, 're-opening' stocks: Macy's +140%, Apple +23%, Otis +22%, Morgan Stanley +44%, Marriott +14% & US Dollar +7%, Oil +50%, soft commodities +20%> average).
Fed Chairman Powell's testimony at end of Nov, to speed up Fed Tapering by 'few months' has the CME FedWatch Tool for Fed Funds rate see a slight uplift: 45% probability of an interest rate hike in June 2022 meeting with target rates at 25-50bps, 31% chance at 50-75bpts by July 2022.
The US Dollar is in midst of a rally that runs counter to higher energy & commodity prices. But, the focus is on Fed tapering that Fed chair Powell has said they may speed things up and speculation is the Dec 15 FOMC meeting, an increase in the Fed taper is likely as high inflation becomes a serious issue.
As a global macro/multi-strategy fund, 'dynamic asset allocation' to other asset classes helps reduce risks and hedging using put options is one of the effective tools besides short-selling stock index futures, SPY ETF index and selective weak single stocks. The failure to diversify to other asset classes is a classic issue for investors. The complacency that 'business as usual' for equity markets is typically why losses occur.
Bitcoin rose above $60,000 and reversed. Support level of $35,000 is critical for more bullish action as new investors are ready to join the party. Only astute traders can trade in highly volatile 2 way markets.
Risk-reward ratio for US S&P 500 is slightly better but not great as potential upside at 4845 & downside at 4244 - 3980. Potential 7% gain with potential 12% loss.
3 Nov 2021 market newsletter – "An intelligent man - genuine needs’
The markets are always one step of us and it pays to keep constant vigilance. The base case can only be anticipated to a certain probability and not with certainty and what George Soros call fallibility in his Reflexivity theory.
We believe if we can get 70% of our market views right and use risk control for the 30% we are wrong, our chances of survival is pretty good. The Covid19 pandemic has been tragic for many who lost their lives and loved ones. But yet the rush to buy stocks and cryptocurrencies has been on a tear.
Financial markets and reality diverges is a reality that many fail to notice and to discern the turning points. It may not be tomorrow or next year but it is the job of any astute fund manager be in-tune/anticipate the nuances of the markets, including political affairs. Early this year, or even 6 months ago, many experts and even the Federal Reserve did not anticipate higher inflation or any tapering of bond purchases or even interest rate hikes.
We were one of the early ones to warn of “inflation problem/lesser QE, higher commodity/oil prices and much higher US stock market prices” versus average 10% stock gain by banks.
See below from our 3 Jan 2021 market report (p2,8,9,11):
- “The extension to 150% fibonacci target of 4244 and 161.8% at 4404 is plausible if all the right things fall into place in the new Biden Administration, 100day plan of 100mil vaccinations, fiscal and infrastructure plan and more stimulus to support Americans and small businesses. The upside of 10% is the consensus view of most investment banks.
- The problem lies in the degree of inflation expectations, US-China rivalry, Iran, Fed policy of lesser QE and even earlier tightening and concerns of Biden's tax plan in 2022 onwards. Something to watch out for.
- The key thing to watch in 2021 is inflation and potentially rising rates, both a risk-off for stocks.
- Recently, there have been talks of rising crude oil prices due to Covid19 vaccines making it possible for economies to revert to old norms by mid 2021.
- Crude oil 3 year chart: bullish oil trend to test $60 as vaccines would make travel and reopening of most countries an earlier than later reality from June 2021.
- Also, calls for stronger dollar to a new Janet Yellen Treasury has grown and that could mean letting rates rise earlier as inflow of demand tend to keep rates rising as a tighter monetary policy may be used as vaccines reduce the need for more expansionary monetary policy and even QE.
- The need to scale back the Fed's balance sheet as it did prior to the coronavirus appeared in Jan 2020 may be the playbook as top think tank fear the devaluation of the US dollar if rising debt levels are not backed by economic growth and fiscal discipline.”
Recently, we were wrong on the magnitude of the stock market correction in the past few months of 10% as it was only -6.3% for S&P 500 index and for Nasdaq index -9%. But we were not wrong to be cautious when capital preservation is the basic goal of all investors before capital gains. As Rudyard Kipling once wrote: “If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster and treat those two impostors just the same...”
Commodities and oil in general are trending higher and it can have a slight correction but the path of least resistance is higher. With crude oil at $80, what's next? Depending on the supply side which is quite constant while the demand side is still rising due to ultra-large fiscal stimulus last year.
The oil price high in 2009 at $150 may be distant but not impossible, though the probable target zone is $90 - $105 in coming months; though a correction is probable once $90+ reached. Some experts dismissed 1970s stagflation but this may be a cost-push inflation. The situation does not look 'transitory' as some US central bank officials have now walked back slightly from the earlier views as the Fed taper was announced on Nov 3. (we had learnt long ago from legendary trader Paul Tudor Jones to not trade before a big event and this week we had Fed monetary policy meeting that was a game-changer and US Non-farm payrolls)
Both supply chain shocks and demand for raw materials are driving up prices of shipping and result in higher costs that in turn result in higher inflation and spiral to higher energy prices. The retail side may get into commodities and result in higher prices as the fear of supply shortages may lead to a 'stockpiling mentality'. The supply-chain crunch for semi-conductors and logistics overhang are not going away for another 6-18 months as TSMC the largest wafer fab producer would only have a new US factory in Arizona in 2024.
The reflexive nature of oil, soft commodities, grains and livestock is feeding a positive feedback loop that distort the mentality of market participants, fundamentals of production and lead to higher prices. The end is not near at the moment given that oil, food and housing prices are still surging.
As a global macro/multi-strategy fund, 'dynamic asset allocation' to other asset classes helps reduce risks and hedging using put options is one of the effective tools besides short-selling stock index futures, SPY ETF index and selective weak single stocks. The failure to diversify to other asset classes is a classic issue for investors. The complacency that 'business as usual' for equity markets is typically why losses mount for funds and retail investors. A portfolio of high quality equity, bonds, currencies and commodities would be more resilient given the high market prices and risks.
Our Jan 2021 market report, p3 as below highlighted the risks of 'Stay home or WFH-work from home' stocks:
- Our last month's report we wrote on 'stay home' stocks like Zoom's weak trend: 'By that we can say the Covid19 stocks that rallied sharply this year could be due for a normalization once the vaccine is deployed in 2021 in large scale. Their lofty valuations fuel by fear and speculation would come to earth as their business usage would likely be affected if international travel picks up. Names like Zoom, Docusign,Clorox,Teladoc.”
Year-to-date, YTD their stock prices: Zoom -16.3%, Clorox -18.5%, Teladoc -24.9% except Docusign +27.8%. If we include one of our portfolio hedge (short-sell idea) Peloton is down -43.2% for 2021.
Inflation rates in Europe were 4.1% in October and not far from the US raging 5%. There may be a natural reflex to look for cheaper deals or reduce spending and we must be aware of companies with less strong financial cashflow, reserves and brand equity to keep their sales high. We hold a bullish view on most commodities except for Gold and other industrial metals as a way to diversify risks and food and energy are 2 basic goods that the world cannot do without.
The US Dollar could be in the early stages of a rally as tapering could be faster than expected to counter inflation and rising energy costs. The Fed tapering of US$15bil a month would end by mid 2022 and Powell has said it is too early to talk about rate hikes until full employment is achieved. The US labor report, Non-farm payrolls at 531k vs expected 425k jobs for Oct and unemployment at 4.6% vs 4.6% was not bad though corporate earnings are likely firm as technology has helped companies stay competitive globally.
However, CME FedWatch Tool futures indicate: 43% probability of an interest rate hike in June 2022 meeting with target rates at 25-50bps, 19% chance at 50-75bpts by July 2022, 29% chance at 50-75bpts by Sep 2022 and by Dec 2022, 21% chance that Fed Fund rate is 75-100bpts. 2022 will not be an easy year.
The goal to have full employment and 2% inflation rate sustained over a few quarters may be sufficient for some action by Fed especially if the business community voices concerns of spiralling costs of raw materials, logistics and wages (A side risk factor is the re-nomination of Fed chair Jerome Powell by Feb 2022, a different person could alter the decision making process)
Bitcoin rose back above $60,000 to new highs as we knew the alternate scenario if the support level of $35,000 was held. The China and India ban on crypto is not a concern for most investors as they move offshore. Only astute traders may be able to trade in highly volatile 2 way markets.
Risk-reward ratio for US S&P 500 is not great as potential upside at 4689/4845 & downside at 4210 – 3980. Potential 5% gain with potential 9-14% loss.
The key support levels: 4539 & 4210 (200 DMA). The bias is to go higher now to 4689 & 4845 (despite the risks) and we have hedges for downside risks till a “larger jump in inflation, worsening Covid19 death rates or worsening corporate earnings”. 70% of US S&P 500 stocks are >20DMA & 200DMA – strong buying power of large investors & corporate insiders.
The new Biden Covid vaccine mandate that requires companies with 100 or more employees to ensure their workers are fully vaccinated by Jan 4, 2022 is a positive step to reduce the pandemic's risk of spreading. That would aid the re-opening - great for the economy, firms and consumers.
1 Oct 2021 market newsletter – ‘Play the ball as it lies.’
'Golf is the closest to the game we call life. Your get bad breaks from good shots; you get good breaks from bad shots – but you have to play the ball where it lies.'
Bobby Jones, 1902 – 1971 winner of 9 majors
U.S S&P 500 index futures chart as at 31 Sep 2021:
The meaning of the quote above can be interpreted as learning to adapt to overcome uncertain situations and not blame others or find excuses. Financial markets is very similar as unknown risks can catch one off balance and it is imperative to 'anticipate and be prepared' when such events occur.
- Stock rally of the last few months saw a glimpse of more serious trouble after the US S&P 500 stock index futures rose to new high of 4545 exceeding our 4500 upside target by 1% and then reversed down to break through all the support levels at 4450, 4404 & 4396.
- The notion that higher inflation would fade any time soon is just a perception of those uber bullish investors or sell-side bankers. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell finally had to say the central banks' inflation targets have been met and a Fed tapering of asset purchases is appropriate. A rate hike expected to be in late 2022 - 2023 may become sooner if inflation is entrenched.
- The losses in September was anticipated by us as we mentioned a 20% gain for US S&P 500 stock index and 19% for Nasdaq index are outliers after last year's 2020 gain of 16% and far exceeded average historical gains. The 2 reasons are outsized stimulus and over-optimism as young traders jump in with both feet using mobile apps with hope.
- The US budget deficit has increased more than all deficits in the last few recessions (1982, 1990s, 2000 dot-com, 2008 GFC) and monetary policy has increased in 3 months in 2020 than the whole of what occured in 2009-18 crisis. No wonder the US stock market has gone parabolic - rising beyond the norms.
- The key support levels are 4244 and 4134 (200 DMA). The trend to go sideways may be short-lived as 'path of least resistance' is lower prices. As a global macro/multi-strategy fund, 'dynamic asset allocation' to other asset classes helps reduce risks and hedging using put options is one of the effective tools besides short-selling stock index futures, SPY ETF index and selective weak single stocks.
- Both US and European inflation rates have accelerated to new decades highs. Eurozone rose to 3.4% a record 13 year high and US index at 4.2% for July and core price index (excluding food & energy) rose to 3.6%. It is natural instinct to reduce spending. As such, we remain bullish on most commodities except for Gold and other industrial metals.
- The rise in vaccinations globally is a positive sign that Covid may be at least under control for now. Booster shots for elderly will gain traction in Q4 2021 - Q1 2022 and that could setup a bullish trend after a correction in Sep-Oct.
- It is a rule for us to be - early buyers in a trend but also recognize when the trend is maturing. The 'competitive edge and margin of safety' are 2 underrated notions. It is vital to take profits or cut losses early and not be 'married to the bull or bear side'.
- We are turning bearish Nasdaq as technology stocks will be hit by supply chain issues and revenues delayed in coming quarter at least. The serious technical breakdown of Nasdaq 100 below key support levels made it imperative for professional traders to cut losses. The other reason being 're-opening of travel' by Jan 2022 is highly possible.
- The failure to diversify to other asset classes is a classic issue for investors. The complacency that 'business as usual' for equity markets is typically why losses mount for funds and retail investors. A portfolio of high quality equity, bonds, currencies and commodities would be more resilient given the high market prices and risks.
- Over-concentrated portfolios of single/social media/gaming stocks is to be avoided as no one knows exactly when regulation comes or when a new disruptive technology erodes the incumbent's market share. The recent Archegos Capital bust with $50bil of levered bets on a few US and China stocks.
- The US Dollar rise has been forward looking to eventual rate hikes. The US dollar bears are in for a surprise as Treasury chief Yellen and Warren Buffett proposed no debt limits in future.
- Bitcoin corrected to below $50,000 as China ban all cryptocurrencies that would make nervous investors either to take profits or cut losses (some may attempt to move offshore). A retest of $38,000 support level is possible. How the rest of the world, especially the U.S intends to regulate Bitcoin would be hard to predict and may be a 'black swan' risk event. Only astute traders may be able to gain in downtrends.
- Risk-reward ratio for US S&P 500 is bad with potential upside at 4600 & downside at 4134 - 3980.
- Oil prices rose to $74 and is testing the resistance of $78 en-route to $80> oil. Some experts dismissed 1970s stagflation but it could be just a cost-push inflation.
- A 10%> correction is likely despite the recent revision of US Q2 GDP to 6.7%.
Our Sep market report also stated the need for portfolio hedges:
“ZM and PTON opened with stops last month, we are closing them and initiate a new short on Newmont Mining, NEM - typically gold price rally up and then trade sideways do not bode well for miners.”
Newmont Mining, NEM: stock price fell 14% for the month (chart below)
Our Sep market report on bearish US stock markets especially Nasdaq 100 stock index (chart below):
“The breakout could be a false break as the Fed tapering of its $120bil asset purchase per month is unlikely to reverse – it's a question of when not if.”
Also, our Sep report on rising rate expectations and bearish bond trend (chart above):
“30 year US Treasury bond yield went to low of 1% and 10 year US Treasury yields to 1.2%. and reversed up. Bonds are overvalued versus inflation and stock dividend yields relative to historical norms.”
1 Sep 2021 market newsletter – ‘Imagine.’
'And the world will live as one.'
song by John Lennon
The famous 'Imagine' song with its 50th anniversary on Sep 9 by ex-Beatles leader is apt to remind us we should strive for peace. The inspiring song is idealistic as 'possessions and power' cannot be easily given up. The chaos in Afghanistan highlights how a situation can turn bad very fast if preparations are not done adequately. The same goes for financial markets as most bullish investors would 'imagine' or assume good times keep rolling on and influenced by media – social and conventional.
- Rally continues despite higher inflation and almost all global equity indices rose in August. Dow Jones Global index gained 16% for 2021. The US S&P 500 stock index futures rose to new high of 4537 exceeding our 4500 upside target by 0.8%.
- The US budget deficit has increased more than all deficits in the last few recessions (1982, 1990s, 2000 dot-com, 2008 GFC) and monetary policy has increased in 3 months in 2020 than the whole of what occurred in 2009-18 crisis. No wonder the US stock market has gone parabolic - rising beyond the norms.
- The gains for the year has finally hit 20% for US S&P 500 index and for the Nasdaq 19%. It has exceeded past average gains and could be due to over-optimism and new 'Reddit' traders jumping on board.
- The key support levels are 4450, 4396 (50 DMA) and 4255 previous resistance level. The trend may go sideways to higher for some time but hedging using put options may be a tool to hedge as markets are 'never linear'.
- Price surging due to supply chain disruptions and strong demand has inflation rising to almost 30 year highs – Fed's preferred measure the PCE index at 4.2% for July and core price index (excluding food & energy) rose to 3.6%. It is natural instinct to reduce spending when prices rise faster than our wages.
- The rise in Covid Delta variant cases and more deadly variants have to be taken seriously. Some investors have forgotten a pandemic is still ongoing – but 'over-loved' Covid stocks like Zoom & Peloton fell 12% & 34% this year.
- We believe it is better to be - early buyers in a trend but also recognize when the trend is maturing. The 'competitive edge and margin of safety' are 2 underrated notions for investing in today's digital world.
- We are staying neutral on Nasdaq as technology stocks still have poor risk-reward ratios and history has shown a correction for Nasdaq tends to be the norm. As Karl Popper said: 'No number of sightings of white swans can prove the theory all swans are white. The sighting of one black swan will disprove it.'
- Another misconception and underrated notion of investing is diversification. Many think that they they will make less money and can put 'all their eggs in one basket and watch that basket closely' like some famed investors.
- For most, it is prudent to diversify to other sectors/asset classes as it is a proven strategy even for professional global macro investors. The risk of over-concentrated portfolios of single stocks/social media stocks/gaming stocks is to be avoided as no one knows when regulation comes or when a new disruptive technology erodes the incumbent's market share. It is vital to take profits or cut losses early and not be 'married to the bull or bear side' especially due to behavioral biases. The recent Archegos Capital collapse comes to mind (with $50bil of levered bets on a few US and China stocks).
- A portfolio of high quality equity, bonds, currencies and commodities would be more resilient given the high market prices and risks. We remain bullish on most commodities despite prices hit our short-term targets (refer to Cross-Asset Class section).
- The US Dollar defies the Fed's dovish stance and concerns of budget deficits. It will need more QE to restart the dollar descent not delay of Fed tapering. The US withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan would save billions for the US and that can help reduce the bloated budget deficit.
- Bitcoin rose higher to almost $49,000 after testing $35,000 support level. The challenge is how crypto can be adopted by central banks going forward not the perception of investors only. Only astute traders may be able to gain in fast moving markets.
- Risk-reward ratio for US S&P 500 is bad with potential upside at 4600 & downside at 3980: 1.7% gain vs 13.6% loss or $1 gain for a loss of $8.
- Oil prices held support of $67 and could rally higher to above $76 on more tropical storms and potential middle-east tensions. Stagflation scenario in 2022 is a worst case scenario.
- Fed chairman Powell's dovish testimony at recent Jackson Hole Symposium online resulted in a market rally yet the taper is inevitable by year end. The fact is an overheated market would cool off at some point – caveat emptor.
- A 10% correction is not too hard given the gains this year of 20%. A cooling off for the markets would keep confidence for the rally to continue in 2022 and show that central bank integrity and judgement is not far off even for a policy change.
- The way of the markets has always been 3 steps forward and 1 step back as market psychology tends to go to extremes while innovation, GDP and earnings tend to be slower. The trendline break every 3-4 years is a typical self-renewing process. The stock rally in last 5 years is phenomenal as 2020 gains in 1 year is equal to the gains made from 2016-2020 of 4 years.
- The chart above sums up 2 decades of market trend. From Internet to mobile era and crypto/digital assets. The crux of issue is income generation for the average worker may lag the superb run up in equity prices and valuations of technology companies in the last 20 years.
- Current market valuations versus the Fed's balance sheet of U$8tril out of synch as the Shiller PE ratio is now at 35 and getting close to 44, the 2000 highs - 2nd highest in the last 100 years. Clearly the E – earnings is not rising fast enough vs stock prices.
- It is in the interest of the Fed and Powell to ensure US maintains full employment and price stability but also the 'wealth effect' and 'competitiveness of US corporations' by delaying any Fed tapering but the consequences are rising inflation and asset bubbles.
- US GDP comes from 70% consumption and the stimulus has driven consumption in the last year with Q2 growth slowing. Real economy is driven by production. The chip shortage and logistics bottleneck drive up prices - a dichotomy. Some call it a 'market anomaly' presenting opportunities for astute traders/hedge funds to take advantage.
- Commodities have done very well this year and after hitting new highs in June, a sideways trend or minor correction occurred. The inflation – commodity correlation has strong empirical relationships and that bodes well for CTA (Commodity Trading Advisers) Funds and producers of commodities.
Our Aug market report on Commodity, wheat, sugar and oil bullish trend continuation: “Wheat Futures Sep '21 – selloff to 614 and reverse up as the bullish breakout is in early stages of a long trend”; “Sugar futures Oct '21 – bullish breakout trend intermediate stage, price fell to 16.80 and reverse to 18.77; our target at 20.93 (high in 2017); frost and drought issues in Brazil would likely cut production”; Oil Futures Sep '21 – trading at $70 after testing $67 support to low of 64.85; $80-85 is probable if supply tightens and U.S infrastructure deal get passed, support at 67 and resistance at 78
Re-opening trades / Sector rotation trades: Macy's stock has done very well as we had anticipated the re-opening since Jan 2021 at $11.25 and has risen 99% year-to-date. Given the resurgence of Covid Delta variant – we are cautious now but stay bullish as it is still below the 5 year high at $40.
Being FLUID – Vigilance and changing to suit the conditions as facts change: We wrote last month of the bearish trend of China big technology stocks like Alibaba & Baidu. There is reason to believe the selloff is near its end after 6 months and may turnaround. But, upside could be there over an adjustment period to new regulations in sideways move. Precise entry levels needed.
- Active investors need to step up with ESG investing to help save the planet: The climate change movement is moving ahead despite valuations concern. US rejoins the Paris Climate Agreement and Biden's new infrastructure deal make it imperative to own some ESG type stocks or assets – but being selective and tactical in timing is crucial. Obviously, there are risks to ESG investments like EV or other renewable technologies. As we seen EV stocks like Nikola where the ex-CEO is being charged by SEC and Workhorse Group as both stocks loss 31% and 50% respectively.
- A rotation to Solar, Wind and Vegan-meat companies: The EV story is still strong with tremendous growth in coming years but it is fair to say we need to look at other options and wait for better price levels to get in again. NextEra Energy, NEE, Vestas, VWS, Avangrid, AGR and Beyond Meat, BYND are possible alternatives to the high flying EV stocks like NIO, Tesla and Xpeng.
3 Aug 2021 market newsletter – ‘Be water.’
- The S&P 500 stock index futures hit a new high of 4422.50 on 29 July, exceeding our 4404 target (set in Jan 2021 report) by 0.4%. So did Dow index made a new high at the month end at 35082 and the Nasdaq 100 index.
- VIX or 'Fear' index low was at 14.6, not 13.29 as we expected as in 2006, 2014 and 2018, key levels tested before any reversal in volatility. The push higher to 4500 for S&P 500 index is not impossible as capital flows out of China stocks & cryptocurrencies on further regulatory risks could benefit US stocks.
- The key support levels are 4321 mid-point from high and low, 4255 previous resistance level and 4292 (50 day moving average). The trend is likely to go sideways for some time. Hedging using put options may be viable.
- Inflation rate rose to 13 year highs as CPI, PCE, home and food prices rose in the U.S. A sharp appreciation in prices could take the markets and Fed by surprise by year end especially with erratic weather due to climate change. Recent surveys show that about 86% of consumers reduce spending due to higher inflation. (PCE Chart above from St Louis Fed)
- The Covid Delta variant cases rising globally is a major concern as the variant is now present in 132 countries. China also reported more than 320 cases in 15 cities like Beijing, Hunan, Henan, Hainan, Hubei and Nanjing (source: Global Times). In the US, recent CDC data showed a rise above last summer's peak of average daily cases, 72,790 cases. The big risk is China and US: An outbreak that goes exponentially will result in lockdowns and a sudden 'risk-off' event.
- At 4422 level, gains for the year would be near 18%, way above the historical norm and even better than 2020's gain of 16% due to large fiscal and monetary stimulus and vaccine discoveries. Most stocks rose due to over-optimism.
- The competitive edge is not distinct and we rather use the high prices to take profit - be early buyers in a trend but also recognize when the trend is maturing. The future growth and 'margin of safety' is vital with high prices.
- The Nasdaq 100 index hit 15134 and exceeded our target of 14,400 levels by 5% (a 2x extension of the move from 2018 to Feb 2020). It's a large move since 2018 at about 6000 points. A rise of 152% in 2 over years. For now, we are staying neutral on NASDAQ as most technology stocks have unattractive risk-reward ratios. A correction for NASDAQ to 13,600 - 12,500 can't be ruled out.
- Diversification to other sectors/asset classes should be continued. Too many investors are taking too much risk by holding too many single stocks/social media driven stocks like GameStop, AMC etc. Failure to take profits or cut losses early would have bad outcomes as 'anchoring' on the bull side take hold.
- A portfolio of high quality equity, bonds, currencies and commodities would be more resilient given the high market prices and risks. We remain bullish on most commodities despite prices hit our short-term targets (refer to Cross-Asset Class section).
- A reversal of US Dollar despite Fed's dovish stance as interest rate expectations for hikes in 2023 are rising. Bond markets stay grounded to low yields on Fed non-action – bond investors 'conditioned' since 2010 QE.
- Bitcoin stayed range bound between $30-40k as new regulations from China to U.S could impede investor's confidence. The 20k level is probably a better level for traders to buy. The climate is more challenging yet more institutional investors are bullish cryptocurrencies for 'fear of missing out'.
- The risk-reward ratio for the S&P 500 is not good with potential upside at 4500 and downside at 3980 for a 2.2% upside vs a 14% downside for a 0.17-1 ratio.
- Oil prices fell to test our support of $67 and bounced to $70. The growth rate may worsen due to Delta variant and rising oil prices - a stagflation scenario.
- The rally can be revived after a meaningful 10% correction due to new stimulus by central banks; but will the rally exceed the high prices of the year?
1 July 2021 market newsletter – ‘Going to extremes is never best.’
- The S&P 500 stock index hit a new high of 4302 on 30 June, exceeding our 4244 target by 1.3%. Dow index could not surpass the last high of 35091 as traders bought back into the technology sector.
- The markets do not go according to plan most of the time and we have to expect the unexpected. The key support level is at 4203 (50 day moving average). The trend is likely to go higher as the breakout of 4250 towards our year end target of 4404 (161.8% Fibonacci target). We were wrong to think that a correction would occur after our short-term target 4244 was achieved even when inflation data rose (see below chart) and oil prices went above $70. It could either miss 4404 or break higher than that
- Whatever the case, it is the 'actions backed by sound decision-making that matters, not talk'. At 4400 level, gains for the year would be 18%, perhaps as good as it gets (above the historical norm); better than 2020's gain of 16%. From our perspective, the investing edge becomes less sharp and would use the high prices to take profit as it is vital to be early buyers in a trend and riding it but also recognize when the trend is maturing. The price we pay for an asset with its potential growth is critical and 'margin of safety' must be factored in.
- The Nasdaq 100 index hit 14503 and exceeded our target 14,400 level by 0.7% (a 2x extension of the move from 2018 to Feb 2020). It would seem to be a watershed point as 2018, Nasdaq 100 in Dec 2018 was at about 6000 points. It is a significant move in 2 & 1/2 years. At this moment, we are staying neutral on Nasdaq and most tech stocks as the risk-reward ratio is less attractive now.
- A deeper correction for Nasdaq to 13,600 - 12,500 cannot be ruled out in coming months. As most technology stocks have mostly become less attractive on a valuation basis given the growth projections. Even a sports car in the Le Mans race need to stop to rest. Most economic data have reached new highs – GDP, ISM, employment and inflation. It is best to recall Lao Tzu's quote: 'If he don't take sides, he don't lose a battle.'
- The upcoming US Non-farm payrolls on July 2 could give another push for 'risk-on' as 690,000 jobs are expected to be created and a lower 5.7% unemployment. EV leader Tesla didn't perform well while competitors GM and Ford started rising with their new EV models. Airline stocks and Boeing should stay firm as travel resumes. ESG stocks like BYND or solar stocks may offer more value than EV stocks now. Utilities and consumer durables are other viable options besides energy sector.
- Constant observation and diversification to other sectors and asset classes in the last few months should be continued. The herd mentality of 'Work from Home' and retail traders via Robin Hood have gone all-in. Contrarian thinking puts us in situation to examine if our edge exists and to exercise patience. Behavioral finance experts would say most investors are now anchored or 'programmed' to look mostly on the bull side.
- A portfolio of high quality equity, bonds, currencies and commodities would be more resilient given the current market level and associated risks. 2021 has seen over speculation in cryptocurrencies and single stock names that raised investor complacency. FX markets see a reversal of US Dollar post FOMC meeting as interest rate expectations for hikes in 2022-2023 are rising.
- Bitcoin had a bad month as it broke below $30,000 briefly before rising back to $36,000. The trend looks weak despite the attempt by bullish traders to talk it up. China had started to ban Bitcoin mining. After missing our earlier target of $70-72k, potentially a fall to $20k level could be a good buying opportunity for those looking to diversify from gold & cash. The latest large institutional investor to join the Bitcoin trading arena is Soros Fund Management, an astute trader in both directions of an asset class.
- The U.S corporate earnings season start in July. Any divergence from the market leaders could be a signal the S&P 500 have a hard time advancing and due for a pullback of up to 10%. Rising oil prices above $74 (our intermediate target) to $80 and Bitcoin falling below $30,000 could result in a 'risk-off' event selloff. Longer-term the rally could regain again due to the unprecedented stimulus by central banks globally and large fiscal policies. It is impossible to make predictions but at best anticipate.
- Our June market report also stated the need for portfolio hedges:
- 'Some hedges or bearish short-sell potential: Docusign, DOCU, Peloton, PTON, Zoom, ZM, EDU + LVS:
- For this month, we are adding Las Vegas Sands due Covid19 effects on its Asian operations after selling its Vegas business.'
- See below 6 month chart below of Las Vegas Sands, LVS stock price fell about 5.9% in June; continuation of the downtrend from March 15 high of around $66. The next level of support appears to be at $48 and a place to lock in profits.
1 June 2021 market newsletter – ‘Here comes the Sun.’
- Last month, most US big cap market leader technology stocks traded lower except for Alphabet & Facebook. EV leader Tesla didn't perform so well while competitors GM and Ford started rising with their new EV strategies and models. Airline stocks and Boeing continue to rise as UK-US travel may re-open soon.
- The S&P 500 stock index hit a new high of 4238 on 7 May, just missing our mid-term target of 4244 by 0.14%. Dow and Nasdaq indices were near to previous highs but could not surpass it. The divergence could be a signal the the S&P 500 may had faced a strong resistance and due for a pullback. The rise of oil prices above $70 and Bitcoin falling further may spark a selloff in the near-term.
- The key support level at 4050 and 4250 resistance are key. The trend is losing some momentum as our mid term target at 4404 (161.8% Fibonacci target) may be a markup for the year end. Summer months of re-opening may not be as smooth as planned and institutional investors would hedge by selling futures. A selloff to 3972 critical support is not unlikely as it would be 6.3% correction from recent high. A 10% correction to 3850 from 4250 would in past market history nothing shocking. The strong markets in a pandemic may have rewired most traders to look on the bull side mostly. The tech market leaders of this rally need to resume higher to give confidence to the overall equity markets. It is impossible to make predictions but at best anticipate.
- The path of least resistance though is higher in the near-term but we are vigilant for a risk-event to spark profit-taking. Any sports car that runs non-stop needs to rest even Le Mans car race is for 24 hours only – thus, a 10% correction in a bull market is normal and even healthy and good opportunity to buy.
- Potentially, the Nasdaq 100 index upside may rise to 14,400 level target (a 2x extension of the move from 2018 to Feb 2020. Though a deeper correction to 13,080 - 12,500 may occur as most technology stocks had rallied hard in 2020 and became overvalued, misled by herd mentality of 'Work from Home' as the new normal.
- The inflation fears are not going away and spark a capital shift if oil prices crosses $70-80 and 10 year bond yield shift a notch higher to 2%. Bond and FX markets are on the same side as Equity traders these time believing that low interest rates are staying for longer. Time will tell.
- Too many investors are still in the era of 'Work from Home' and hold large chunks of stocks that carry much risk. A portfolio of high quality equity, bonds, currencies and commodities would be more resilient given the market risks as over speculation in cryptocurrencies and single stock names have raised complacency. We remain bullish commodities but prices are near our short-term targets (refer to Cross-Asset Class section).
- Bitcoin rise to $65,000 high miss our intermediate target zone of $70,000 - 72,000 levels and the sharp correction below $40k support level shows that insiders are taking profit while new 'believers' are jumping in buying on dips. This selling in BTC could partially explain gold prices rise. Typical behavioral patterns of a bubble market. We could be wrong as BTC has little fundamentals to study as the buyers may jump in again.
- Our May market report also stated the need for portfolio hedges:
“Some hedges or bearish short-sell potential: Docusign, DOCU and Peloton, PTON, Zoom, ZM + EDU”. We are adding New Oriental Education & Technology, EDU as a new short-sell hedge as China regulation clamp down on online education firms. Also, talks of inflated sales numbers on EDU quite similar to crash of Luckin Coffee's in 2020.
See below 3 month chart of New Oriental Education & Technology, EDU stock price fell about 32% in May:
Cross-Asset class diversification
Copper chart below last month with our expected target of '10 year high at 4.50' (indicated in yellow dotted line) which had been exceeded by early May and now trades at 4.65:
3 May 2021 market newsletter – ‘Our knowledge can only be finite.’
'Our knowledge can only be finite, while our ignorance must necessarily be infinite.'
- Last month, we said US big technology stocks like Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet & Facebook need to join the rally of US equity markets. Their strong earnings helped S&P 500 index reached new highs, 4218 on Apr 29.
- Thus, stocks like Caterpillar, Southwest Airlines, Starbucks, Bank of America, Blackstone, Ralph Lauren and Visa are some top gainers in April in the reflation theme, whereas many SAH,'Stay at Home' or WFH,'Work from Home' stocks like Zoom, Peloton, Teladoc, Shopify, Grubhub, Spotify, Zillow etc are off its highs.
- 4050 level will be a key support level and 4250 resistance. The trend is losing some momentum as 4244 target level is pivotal to turn US equity index strongly positive, en-route to 4404 (161.8% Fibonacci target). It may not be linear as most of the good news have been reported and a selloff to 3972 critical support may occur.
- The path of least resistance though is higher and 4244 levels is highly probable even if a subsequent selloff occurs. A decent correction to next level of support at 3790 likely find value investors looking to buy. The facts are what matters - the underlying economic conditions and how it evolves. A 10% correction in a bull market is normal and even healthy. It is unlikely a major acceleration of Covid19 infections and deaths globally.
- We mentioned earlier a strong catalyst is needed to push equity prices higher. It could come from a few possibilities: full re-opening of US economy, weak form 'herd immunity' with 70% population vaccinated, new technological discovery, big improvement in US-China relations. (On the downside, any bad news on Covid19 in US & globally that result in lockdowns will be bad. Military conflicts would also be bad as it will drain resources from ending the Covid pandemic and worst, spur oil prices and inflation higher.)
- Potentially, the Nasdaq 100 index upside may rise to 14,400 level target (a 2x extension of the move from 2018 to Feb 2020. Though a deeper correction to 13,080 - 12,500 may occur as most technology stocks had rallied hard in 2020 and became overvalued misled by herd mentality of 'Work from Home' as the new normal.
- The inflation narrative that plagued the market in Feb could spike once oil crosses $70-80 and central banks may need to adjust their monetary policies. The key level would be 2%> for U.S 10 year bond yield as an event catalyst to dampen investor sentiment and cause a serious reallocation to safer assets away from stocks. A diversified portfolio of high quality equity, bonds, currencies and commodities would be more resilient but are less common today as speculation in cryptocurrencies and single stock names have raised investor complacency. We are bullish commodities and included more trades in the Cross-Asset Class section.
- Bitcoin could rise to intermediate target of $70,000 - 72,000 levels, and would be an indicator to watch on investor sentiment. A sharp correction of Bitcoin could have some impact on institutions that had invested in Bitcoin in the last 12 months and have negative spillover effects on stock markets.
- Some hedges or bearish short-sell potential: Docusign, DOCU, Peloton, PTON, Zoom, ZM +EDU
Both Docusign and Peloton ended weaker in March but are near 50% half way support for last year's gigantic rally that boosted DOCU 338% and PTON 600%. Zoom Video, ZM rose 590%. We are adding New Oriental Education & Technology, EDU as a new short-sell hedge as China regulation cramp down on online education firms. Also, talks of inflated sales numbers on EDU quite similar to crash of Luckin Coffee's in 2020. Sector rotation to re-opening trades would continue and none of these companies have 'monopoly' power
2 Apr 2021 market newsletter – ‘What is an edge in investing and when do you have it?’
- The ceiling of 4000 seem elusive in March as selling pressure kept trading in the range of 3750 to 3950. On 31st March, news of Biden's infrastructure plan boosted sentiment and index rose to a new high of the year at 3994.21 despite the 10 year Treasury yield holding above 1.7% - breakout had occurred.
- 3850 resistance will now become a key support level for traders while a rise in bond yields and expected inflation may lead to profit-taking. Big Tech stocks like (Google, Apple, Microsoft, Facebook, Amazon) were the last year leaders have to recover to ensure the positive momentum is not a false break. Overall, the index rose higher in March though many prominent stocks are now off their 52 weeks high.
- The path of least resistance though is higher but may need to pause and allow a decent correction to next level of support at 3767 (top of Ichimoku cloud) and 3650 as the 'smart money' may be less eager to buy at the high when inflation is a concern. It is with evidence and facts that must lead us to right path. It is premature to dismiss the bull market even though a 10% correction would actually be a good thing. The trendline from Mar 2020 is intact and no major acceleration of Covid19 infections and deaths are seen compared to last year.
- An interim target zone at 4050-4125 is still viable in the near-term, 4100 lies at the upper trend channel and pullback as oil prices stay elevated and bond yields break above 2%. Though caution is needed with trailing stop loss limits placed. A breakout higher for S&P 500 index to 4180-4400 in coming months is possible at year end but that would be 10% higher and would need a strong catalyst. (Potentially, the Nasdaq 100 index upside may rise to 14,400 level target (a 2x extension of the move from 2018 to Feb 2020. Though a deeper correction to 12,500 may occur as most technology stocks had rallied too hard in 2020 and valuations are too high).
- The inflation narrative that has plagued the market in Feb to March may see a sudden surge again. The key level would be 2% > for US 10 year bond yield to spark an event catalyst and chain event to dampen investor sentiment and cause a reallocation to safer assets rather than stocks. Bitcoin rising to $60,000 may see some flows but it is also over traded and may be find hard to rise above $70,000 - 72,000 level.
- Crude oil prices rising above $70 may become a reality. Trend reversal in US dollar and gold indicates market changes going on. Weaker economic data after a strong Q1, 2021 won't be a surprise.
1 Mar 2021 Market update - 'There are 2 sides to everything'
- The US stock index broke though 3850 resistance and tested new highs of 3950 in early Feb before a rise in bond yields and expected inflation resulted in profit-taking. 3800 support level was tested easily as Big Tech stocks sold off. Overall, the index lost only 3% from the high and could retest the highs before another minor correction. This sideways move could take some time before a final breakout of 4000 points to 4200.
- The target zone of 3850 to 4000 before any pullback stands as 3600, our previous target is acting as support. The next level of support lies at 3767, top of Ichimoku cloud and it is too early to call the top as price action traded within the trend channel since Sep 2020. Until the trendline from Mar 2020 is broken, there is little evidence on Covid19 or global growth to be on a downtrend in 2021.
- A breakout higher to 4180-4400 in coming months is possible at year end but that would be 10% higher and would need a strong catalyst. The good news driven by vaccines and Biden's large fiscal plan just passed would drive positive momentum for risk assets globally and not just in U.S. A likely scenario is a markup to new peak at 4200-4400 levels by May – June and followed by a meaningful correction to 3300-3600. That would be a better entry point for value investors. (Potentially, the Nasdaq 100 index upside may be limited to 14,400 level target (a 2x extension of the move from 2018 to Feb 2020. Though a deeper correction to 12,500 can't be ruled out before a new rally begins)
- If we do a Google search on 'U.S. inflation 2021', approximately 158 mil results appear on fears of rising rates versus 'U.S GDP 2021' that yielded 283mil results. This is a sharp rise in fears of inflation stories online and could have a behavioral finance feedback loop on real markets recently and in near future.
- Last month's sharp rise in bond yields from 1.07 to 1.6% could see a calmer bond market as U.S 10 year yields be cap below 1.5% as Federal Reserve's policy stays anchored with Jerome Powell being a steady hand in the crisis. Moreover, crude oil prices breaking $60-65 will temporarily lose its upward effect as more supply come onstream – higher prices induce more production as always. An upward rise in global stocks and US stock indices depends on sentiment of market, fundamental and technical analysis probably 33% each and 1% on a bad 'black swan' event - as they say lightning don't strike on the same spot twice.
Feb 3, 2021 Market update - 'Back to basics'
- The US stock index had two failed attempts of breaking 3850 and continued to trade sideways closing at 3822. US S&P 500 Index having rose 16% for 2020 is facing resistance due to worries of overvaluation, sharp retail speculation in Gamestop resulting in Treasury comments on it and a new anti-trust reform bill that could rein in big tech firms.
- The target zone of 3850 to 4000 before any pullback stands as 3600, our previous target is acting as support. The RSI stays above 50 and OBV indicator stay near highs while Ichimoku cloud rising upwards showing buying momentum is not waning yet. A test of 4000 level could be due soon.
- A breakout higher to 4180-4400 in coming months is possible at year end but that would be 10% higher and would need a strong catalyst. The good news driven by vaccines and Biden's large fiscal plan are already baked in and the US Central Bank's policy is unlikely to see more stimulus to spur more stock gains. Thus, a correction to 3300-3600 would be a much needed recalibration of valuation. That would be a better entry point for value investors.
- So far inflation risks are low but 10 year yields are rising and if it rises above 1.25 – 1.5%, potentially the market expects changes in the Federal Reserve's policy and could be a risk-off for stocks. Oil prices rising sharply above $60 may be one asset class to watch that could pulling effect on interest rate yields higher.
Jan 3, 2021 Market update - 'Is this the roaring 20s?'
- US S&P 500 Index closed at 3756 for end of 2020, 2% off from our last month's target of 3850 as our earlier 3600 was breached. The fear of vaccine deployment and rising deaths are valid obstacles to buy in thin markets of Dec; plus worries of Senate seat in Georgia.
- The momentum is most likely to carry on to break above 3850 to 4000 before any pullback. The coming Q4 corporate earnings in mid Jan and Biden's inauguration on Jan 20 would boost sentiment.
- The key support at 3650 is critical for a push higher to 4180-4400 in coming months. The Covid19 vaccines would work its way through by Mar 2021 despite many logistic challenges and even rising infections due to winter month. We should not underestimate the markets and power of liquidity as we wrote in June 2020 market newsletter 'Don't buck the trend' as we warned of rising prices as S&P 500 broke through resistance level of 2959 to 3000-3100.
- The key thing to watch in 2021 is inflation and potentially rising rates, both a risk-off for stocks. Having look at how bitcoin is moving, the professionals believe that to hedge for inflation besides buying gold could be a signal.
Dec 4, 2020 Market newsletter - Is the coast clear?
- The US S&P 500 index rallied as news that Biden won and vaccines were 95% effective forced volatility down 5 days after Nov 3.
- Index hit a new all time high today at 3699 as vaccine news and potential stimulus deal is being discussed. We had a target of 3600 and beyond for 2021 as we wrote in our last newsletter: 'Thus, a rise back is likely and if Biden wins with a blue wave, despite any legal challenges, the uptrend in 2021 could be even more as per our last price target of 3600 or higher.”
- Sentiment is high after Biden's win and vote re-counts prove that there is little probability of voter fraud as Trump claimed. We said last month 'a triple top is possible too and conventional thinking is either candidate is bullish thus a lack of hedging strategies' as the breakout nature of this market is not be discounted.
- The key support at 3450 and 3208 could be tested as the leg up to 3825 (161.8% Fibonacci target) may seem hard. Furthermore, if 'buy on news/rumor and sell on fact' may not be displaced in this era despite the youthful exuberance of millennial traders.
- A 10% correction in the near term is possible instead of a 20%. But we may be wrong as a slow and steady rise to test 3850 to end the year and leaving little upside in Jan 2021 but bad news. A larger correction in Q1, 2021 would probably happen especially if the vaccine fails to deliver its potency as cases rise during winter period.
- But, one should not bet against science as eventually vaccines and right government policies (stimulus/fiscal/health) will contain C19; thus, a higher target zone of 3800-4000 would be likely by next year. Moreover, the fiscal stimulus and infrastructure plans of a Biden Administration would support stocks until the tax hikes start from 2022.
Oct 5, 2020 update - U.S S&P 500 stock index (weekly chart as 2 Oct 2020)
The US stock index broke below the previous Feb high of year at 3393 and drifted to low of 3200 in mid Sep. The mega-tech stocks had a sharp fall in early Sep before recovering end of month.
- Weekly chart above shows price action moving towards mid-point of Bollinger bands and could spike down at any time. The critical support would be at 3250/3080 as 2 key supports and 2900 critical support to prevent stop loss liquidation.
- It could try to push higher to 3450 after testing 3200 once more but from history whenever the markets have a >10% fall, it tends to trend lower to at least a 15-20% correction.
- Index target 3111 (200day moving average) by Oct and below 2480 by Nov as 'hope' has been driving buying rather than rational decisions.
- Obviously, irrational markets can go on. However, the mid to longer-term trend is probably higher as index rose above 2009 trendline with a potential extension to 3600 or higher by early 2021.
Sep 1, 2020 market update
US S&P 500 index weekly chart - probabletrend reversal
- Market cycle (short-term) – 6 months from market lows of Mar 2020 may be a turning point for a selloff i.e double bottom.
- The US stock index broke above the high of the year at 3393 and rose to 3514 yesterday. It may still attempt to rise to 3525 but near extremes as driven by 5 largest tech stocks (Amazon, Facebook, Alphabet, Apple, Microsoft).
- The critical support would be at 3480 before 3080 as a key support. The ‘fear of missing out / FOMO’ crowd is driving the speculative fever. It would likely start with a minor correction and then a push higher to 3525-50 before a big reversal occurs end October/early Nov. Index target initial 2753 (200 day moving average) in Sep and below 2480 by Oct as the over-exuberant speculation diverges from fundamentals.
- However, the mid to longer-term trend is probably higher as index rose above 2009 trendline with a potential extension to 3600 or higher by 2021.
Disclaimer: All information is strictly for Professional Investors and not meant to be a sale, advice or marketing of any product or service. No information here is allowed to be duplicated nor forwarded and belong to Macrowaters Asia Fund Management. We will not hesitate to take legal action according to copyright laws. All charts and performance metrics (gross returns before fees) are based on our actual model portfolio for illustration and not indicative of future performance. Past performance does not guarantee nor indicate future performance. Investment in financial markets involves all kinds of risks and may result in losses.
奥地利 - 英国哲学家和教授卡尔·波普尔爵士，1902年
2022 年 2 月 3日市場通訊—“不要希望他必須害怕，反之亦然”
Jesse Livermore，19 世紀的股票和商品交易員
美國股市，標準普爾 500 股指於 2022 年 1 月 3 日昇至 4818 的新高，然後於 1 月 31 日收於 4515.55。隨著通脹和 2022 年企業盈利指引下降的普遍存在，去年 27% 的漲幅早已被人們遺忘。
我們的目標 4845 偏離了 0.6%。但正如我們一直知道的那樣，我們只能盡可能地預測，而不是預測和使用我們的風險管理和動態資產配置模型來處理風險和任何錯誤的分析。但股指在反轉之前確實測試了我們的 4400 和 4244 的支撐位，正如我們上個月所寫的那樣：“市場修正可能至 4400 水平（10-12% 回調），但可能會在 5027 和 5372中期。”
美國零售額歷史上每年增長 3%，但近年來由於大規模的財政和貨幣刺激措施，2020-21 年零售額增長了 10%。供應鏈中斷和 Covid 封鎖導致需求大幅增長，導致全球通脹螺旋上升，航運和運費推高。美國企業盈利有可能超過創紀錄的 3 萬億美元和強勁的股票回購。
我們不僅信奉“重開股、板塊輪動到價值股”，還關注科技股，甚至在1月3日成為第一家市值3萬億美元的公司時，就警告不要買入蘋果股票。在蘋果股價下跌 15% 後不久，直到其結果出來：
“但是，現在是時候對如此高的估值保持謹慎，並且沒有創始人史蒂夫喬布斯創造魔法或“創造性破壞”。所有商業周期都面臨著挑戰，因為利潤增長了 30%，但股價又上漲了 50%。”
由於數字廣告增長放緩，Meta (Facebook) 股價在一天內下跌 26% 早該出現，而 Alphabet (Google)、Snap、微軟、蘋果和亞馬遜報告的利潤好於預期。長期以來，數字營銷一直被吹捧為通過新創業公司獲利、幫助公司向更多消費者銷售、甚至創造品牌知名度的方式，這通常只是一種看法，因為結果總是不盡如人意；為數字廣告公司、影響者、社交媒體平台和網站獲取巨額利潤。隨著“狂野西部數字世界”對投資者和對青少年的社會影響產生不良影響，隨著對加密貨幣、元界和 NFT 的監管即將到來，預計會有更多人員傷亡。
比特幣的過山車之旅仍在繼續，但作為一種有效的交換媒介、價值儲存和通脹對沖或只是一種投機資產類別，是值得商榷的，也是一個認知問題；但它很容易被自私的發起人、欺詐者和洗錢者濫用。持有 35,000 美元的支持可以保持積極的行動來測試 70,000 美元。但是，只有精明的交易者才能在高度波動的雙向市場中進行交易。
WHO（世界衛生組織）數據顯示，當前的 Omicron Covid新冠肺炎 大流行使每周病例數比 2021 年 3 月增加了約 3 倍，但死亡率僅為其一半左右。
左上圖顯示，目前全球疫苗接種率為 1 劑 61%，完全接種率為 53%；還沒有達到 90%。例如，美國 63%、英國 71%、中國 85%、印度 51%、法國 76%、韓國 85%、日本 79%、加拿大 79%、德國 74%、泰國 69%、印度尼西亞 45%、俄羅斯48% 和南非 28%。這場 Omicron 浪潮可能需要幾個月的時間才能在全球範圍內結束，如果以歷史為鑑，1918 年西班牙流感於 1920 年 4 月結束。
右上方的圖表顯示了全球在助推器射擊方面的進展情況，這可能需要更長的時間才能達到 60% 的水平。正如我們去年所說，當疫苗獲得 FDA 批准並在全球推廣時，Covid 疫苗是一個巨大的遊戲規則改變者。但要戰勝這場大流行戰爭，需要助推器來減少傳播和進一步死亡，並打破惡性循環。
使用的疫苗種類也很重要，因為科學家已經證明輝瑞-BioNtech 和 Moderna 對新變種具有最高的效力和加強注射。如果 Omicron 擴大，使用其他疫苗製造商的國家可能有傳播病毒的風險。哈佛研究人員對 1918-19 年西班牙流感的一項有趣研究發現了“惡劣天氣與西班牙流感效應”之間的相關性，這可能對 2020 年 Covid19 爆發和氣候變化影響的研究有用。
ESG 投資不應再是可選的，而是每個投資者核心方法的一部分。坐等科學家和政治家就氣候變化進行辯論的時候已經結束了。對我們的 ESG環境、社會及管治 或可持續發展投資正在為 4 個關鍵領域尋找創新解決方案—全球範圍內的環境、教育、醫療保健和公司治理。一些例子包括太陽能、風能和可再生能源公司、電動交通（汽車、踏板車、輪船、遊艇、公共汽車和飛機）、素食公司、教育技術、全球醫療保健公司和強大的全球公司治理（如工資、多元化、淨零碳排放、紅利、企業社會責任等）
A) “石油、天然氣和汽油價格在 12 月上漲，並呈上升趨勢，以測試多年高點。可能的目標範圍是 85-110 美元（2009 年 150 美元的高位將遙遙無期，但並非不可能）。”
原油價格在 2022 年 1 月升至 88 美元，較 1 年前升值超過 70%，較 2020 年 4 月 19 日油價下跌時的低點上漲了 5 倍以上。到目前為止，WTI 油價已上漲近 20%，而歐佩克+ 逐步增加產量將無濟於事，因為此前商定的 3 月 40 萬桶可能不足以阻止漲勢，尤其是在烏克蘭-俄羅斯和中東的地緣政治緊張局勢下存在。 2020 年的負油價迫使歐佩克大幅減產，現在是時候讓他們收穫他們所播種的東西了能量輸出。
B) 由於供需基本面（由於氣候變化/影響作物收成的惡劣天氣），小麥、大豆、穀物、咖啡和玉米價格上漲導致食品價格上漲不會很快逆轉。通過基本面和情緒推動價格走高的商品反饋循環是相互關聯的。 “價格上漲的經典療法是價格上漲”。
小麥價格看起來可能會測試 2010-12 年的多年高點，較去年上漲 18%，較 2020 年的低點上漲 62%。現在的通貨膨脹與 1918-20 西班牙流感/第一次世界大戰 1914-18 時期非常相似小麥從 1915 年到 1920 年上漲了 400%；生鐵上漲 300%，棉花上漲 400%。總體而言，由於美國勞工部在 2021 年錄得 6.5% 的漲幅，當前食品價格以 13 年來最快的速度上漲。數據顯示，快餐店在 2021 年因通脹上漲了 7.1%。
650% (使用 $17 低)
美聯儲主席鮑威爾在 1 月 11 日談到通脹和應對通脹：“如果我們看到通脹在高位持續的時間比預期的要長，那麼如果我們不得不隨著時間的推移進一步提高利率，我們就會這樣做。”
美國 12 月通脹率較上年同期上升至 7%，創 40 年新高，CPI 較 11 月上升 0.5%。剔除食品和能源，核心通脹上升 5.9%。工資也上漲了 5.7%。通脹現在是一個大問題，但做得太少或太多可能會損害市場情緒，因此美聯儲的溝通工具箱很重要。
PCE的歷史趨勢—個人消費支出不包括1930年的食品和能源，我們可以得出一些結論：當前的PCE通脹已經超過了1992年的高點，僅靠美聯儲加息能否阻止通脹仍有待觀察從走高的趨勢。這可能讓人想起 1967 年到 1971 年的運行，然後是 1972-73 年的下跌。異常事件風險將是類似的“從 1974 年到 80 年的大躍進”。顯然，歷史不會完全重複，但它可以有一些相似的模式。
由於油價可能會升至 100 美元以上，因此需要更多美元，許多國家需要做好準備。英國央行因通脹和消費價格大幅上漲而第二次加息。目前，歐洲央行和日本央行一直對採取行動加息猶豫不決。
除了科技股，還有波音、梅西百貨、Coursera、卡夫亨氏、台積電、Global Foundries、聯合健康、泰森食品、Beyond Meat、Moderna、希爾頓、萬豪和OTIS等其他在2022年具有良好機會的成長股。
美元處於看漲趨勢變化中，因為美聯儲 2022 年的加息幅度可能為 4-5 次，而美聯儲 8tril 資產負債表的縮減將導致債券發行量減少，從而使美國國債更具吸引力並導緻美元需求增加；因為通貨膨脹和加息將使美元成為比日元、歐元、澳元或英鎊更好的替代資產類別。
去年，像居家辦公和在家工作（以及一些中國科技股）這樣的 Covid19 股票的下滑仍未結束，因為經典的“行業輪換”戰術策略，一些投資者要么選擇不相信，要么不知道，原因是缺乏顧問的指導。
因此，我們在 1 月 3 日的市場報告中有兩個看跌的賣空對沖：Peloton 和 Nvidia 均下跌超過 20%（見左圖）
“黑天鵝”事件是軍事衝突或重大政治事件，它擾亂供應鏈，進而推高通脹和油價，導致企業和消費者信心急劇下降。風險很低，但如果發生這種情況，市場可能會修正至 3984 支撐位（20% 回調）。
美國標準普爾 500 指數的短期風險回報率相當不錯，在 4500 水平，潛在上行在 4953/5072，下行在 4400/4244。潛在 10-12% 的收益，潛在的 6% 損失。
2022 年 1 月 3日市場通訊—“校準不跟隨”
美國股市，標準普爾 500 指數在 2021 年 12 月 30 日昇至 4808 點的新高，然後在 12 月 31 日收於 4766 點。27% 的漲幅是大多數銀行分析師平均目標的兩倍。
我們自己的目標 4404 被超過了，我們做了一個快速的重新評估，意識到我們不夠積極，並在 2021 年 9 月將其重新表述為 4848，並在 2021 年 10 月重新表述為 4953。
全球全面疫苗接種率現已接近 60%，經濟的重新開放是人性和文明的自然延伸。沒有人願意 24 小時呆在家裡，或者被剝奪在咖啡館吃飯或在健身房鍛煉的權利。我們去年所說的改變遊戲規則的是疫苗獲得 FDA 批准並在全球範圍內推出疫苗。
因此，我們對標普 500 指數近期的新預測是 4850 和 4953。市場回調可能會回落至 4400 水平（回調 10-12%），但可能會在中期內升至 5027 和 5372。
唯一的“黑天鵝”事件是任何軍事衝突或地緣政治緊張局勢加劇，擾亂供應鏈，進而推高通脹和油價，導致商業和消費者信心急劇下降。如果發生這種情況，將發生對 3984 支撐位（20% 回調）的重大修正，並且可能會根據其嚴重程度螺旋式下降。
像呆在家里和在家工作（以及一些中國科技股）這樣的 Covid19 股票去年大幅重置。這是一種經典的“行業輪換”戰術策略，一些投資者要么選擇不相信，要么由於缺乏顧問的指導而無知。無論如何，通過看跌賣空對我們來說是一個很好的對沖，這只是認識到變化是唯一不變的，阻力最小的路徑佔上風。
石油、天然氣和汽油價格在 12 月上漲，並呈上漲趨勢，以測試多年高點。可能的目標範圍是 85-110 美元（2009 年的高點 150 美元將遙不可及，但並非不可能）。由於安哥拉和尼日利亞的產量限制，歐佩克+在 1 月份每天增加 400,000 桶石油供應，可能只有 130,000 桶，2 月份可能會增加 250,000 桶。需求面堅挺，但可能會在 2 月至 3 月之後增長，因為加強疫苗和 Omicron 的高峰出現，開放航空旅行和辦公室工作。 COT，交易商承諾報告顯示商業和生產商淨做多，而投機者/非商業做空 – 支持更高的價格。拜登的基礎設施計劃將促進建築活動。
美元處於看漲趨勢變化中，隨著美聯儲在 3 月結束縮減規模，加息可能會導緻美元需求，因為美聯儲主席在 12 月 16 日給出了他對通脹可能已經根深蒂固的最坦率評估.美元的世界秩序只會在發生全球衝突或中國持有的美國國債或釘住匯率發生巨大變化時發生變化。美國擁有的戰略石油儲備可能在一定程度上減輕能源價格上漲對其經濟的衝擊。
Apple 成為市值 3 萬億美元的第一家公司，我們在上個月的報告中強調，它是全球“最具創新性和積極思考”的公司。我們在 2021 年 1 月以 130 美元以上的價格看漲，但隨著價格上漲至 150 美元和180 美元而變得中性，上漲了 35%。但是，現在是對如此高的估值保持謹慎的時候了，而且創始人史蒂夫喬布斯沒有創造魔法或“創造性破壞”。所有商業周期都面臨著挑戰，因為利潤上漲了 30%，但股票上漲了 50%。但是史蒂夫·喬布斯有一句很好的名言：“你不能把點子向前看，你只能向後看”（你不能推斷並期望事情直線發展”）。
還有其他具有同樣好的機會的價值股，例如波音、梅西百貨、Coursera、通用磨坊、卡夫亨氏、Global Foundries、Moderna、希爾頓、萬豪和 OTIS（如下圖）。
比特幣 46,000 美元的投機熱不會很快結束，直到美國或英國出台可能導致恐慌性崩潰的重大監管。超過 60,000 美元和逆轉可能是由於機構交易員重新評估作為交換媒介或價值儲存的中心論點是否成立，除了是另一種投資資產類別。 35,000 美元的支撐位對於測試 70,000 美元的看漲行動至關重要。只有精明的交易者才能在高度波動的雙向市場中進行交易。
美國標準普爾 500 指數的短期風險回報比率中等，潛在上行 4953，下行 4400。潛在上漲 3%，潛在下跌 9%。
2021 年 12 月 3日市場通訊- “積極的想法，人類的一小步”
美股方面，標普500股指升至4743新高，11月30日回調至4501低點，高位回調約5%。上個月，我們警告說，鑑於今年的漲幅，牛市可能會出現回調：“美國標準普爾 500 指數的風險回報率並不大，因為潛在上行空間為 4689/4845，下行空間為 4210-3980，潛在上漲 5%潛在的 9-14% 損失和關鍵支撐位：4539 和 4210（200 DMA）”
標準普爾 500 指數觸及我們的支撐位 4539，可以測試我們之前的目標 4404，現在轉向支撐（見上圖）。趨勢仍然看漲，可能會測試 4400（關鍵支撐位）以改變聖誕節反彈的趨勢。自發現 Covid19 疫苗以來的“積極想法”不會輕易消退。
我們在 2021 年 10 月的報告中說：“一旦‘弱手和羅賓漢’交易員被淘汰出局，2022 年 4600 至 4848 的更高目標可能是可行的。當然，對於市場而言，沒有什麼是一成不變的，尤其是在通脹失控、利率預期、美聯儲主席鮑威爾被提名 2022 年、美國 2022 年中期選舉可能會改變權力動態和增長放緩的情況下中國...”
我們重新評估了市場狀況並得出結論，美聯儲每月縮減 150 億美元的規模還不夠快。 2020 年刺激計劃將推高中期目標，除非出現“黑天鵝”事件，否則下行可能在 4090 和 3980 找到支撐。
我們在 2021 年 11 月的報告中說：“我們設定的短期目標 4244、4404 和 4500-4600 已經超過，我們在 2022 年 4848 之前的新目標 4689。下行支撐位在 4400 和 200 天移動平均線 4210 （上限為 10% 的小幅修正）。阻力位在 4953。”
由於擔心 omicron 變體和美國的提議，歐佩克 + 將在 1 月份將石油供應量每天增加 40 萬。這可能會延遲價格的反彈，但不會改變趨勢。需求仍然強勁，因為增長率可能保持穩定，供應鏈問題仍在清理積壓。由於基本面和市場情緒相互關聯，商品反饋循環推動價格走高。明年可能的目標範圍是 80-100 美元（2009 年的高點 150 美元在 2022 年可能並非不可能）。
我們在 2021 年 4 月的報告中強調，在整個 2021 年，行業輪換從“在家或在家工作”股票轉向重新開放/價值股票：
“板塊輪動（這些是不可忽視的趨勢）- 隨著 3 月份科技股下跌，價值股漲跌互現：許多價值股經歷了回調......這些股票在過去 3 年中上漲了 20-30% 以上- 6個月。 2021 年，部門輪換可能會繼續。諾貝爾獎獲得者、《非理性繁榮》著名作者羅伯特·希勒教授去年說 Covid19 疫苗改變了遊戲規則。”
2021 年 5 月，我們寫道：“真正需要關注甚至考慮對沖（賣空）的是中國股票（阿里巴巴、京東、拼多多、百度和 TME 自最近幾個月的高峰以來一直在下跌；最糟糕的是在線教育股票跟誰學、好未來和教育；像蔚來和李這樣的電動汽車公司都處於熊市）。我們可以做出一些有根據的猜測，出售開始是由於中國當局的監管以及美國立法要求中國上市的 ADR 與美國其他上市公司進行類似的嚴格審計，否則有被退市的風險。 Archegos 清算部分中國 ADR 股票可以解釋部分拋售，但不是全部。最好讓市場告訴我們該怎麼做，而不是尋找理由來證明堅持下去。”
2021 年 6 月：“太多投資者仍處於‘在家工作’時代，持有大量風險較大的股票。考慮到市場風險，高質量股票、債券、貨幣和商品的投資組合將更具彈性，因為對加密貨幣和單一股票名稱的過度投機引發了自滿情緒。我們仍然看好大宗商品，但價格接近我們的短期目標（請參閱跨資產類別部分）。摩根大通首席執行官戴蒙是最直言不諱的首席執行官之一，他表示將在 7 月結束 Zoom 會議並重返辦公室，花旗集團首席執行官和谷歌也是如此。蘋果和微軟也鼓勵員工在 6 月前返回。”
上面的一些“Covid 股票”已經下跌（年初至今，年初至今，2021 年 12 月 3 日）：Zoom -43%, Clorox -17%, Teladoc -50%, Peloton -70%, New Oriental Education, EDU -88%, TAL Education -90%, GSX (new name GOTU) –95%, Las Vegas Sands -40%, Baidu -31%, Alibaba -47%, JD.com –10%, Pinduoduo -69%, NIO –25%, Docusign -39%.
這就是我們所說的“持有單一股票名稱的高風險，不分散，分析死板”（相反，'重新開放'股票：梅西+140％，蘋果+23％，奧的斯+22％，摩根斯坦利 +44%，萬豪 +14% 和美元 +7%，石油 +50%，軟商品 +20%> 平均）。
美聯儲主席鮑威爾在 11 月底的證詞中，為加快美聯儲縮減“幾個月”的步伐，CME 聯邦基金利率觀察工具略有提升：2022 年 6 月加息的可能性為 45%，目標利率為 25 -50bps，到 2022 年 7 月達到 50-75bps 的可能性為 31%。
美元正處於與能源和商品價格上漲背道而馳的反彈中。但是，焦點在於美聯儲主席鮑威爾表示他們可能會加快步伐的美聯儲縮減規模，並且猜測是 12 月 15 日的 FOMC 會議，隨著高通脹成為一個嚴重問題，美聯儲可能會增加縮減規模。
比特幣升至 60,000 美元以上並反轉。隨著新投資者準備加入派對，35,000 美元的支撐位對於更多看漲行動至關重要。只有精明的交易者才能在高度波動的雙向市場中進行交易。
美國標準普爾 500 指數的風險回報率略好，但不如 4845 的潛在上行和 4244 - 3980 的下行。潛在上漲 7%，潛在下跌 12%。
2021 年 11 月 3日市場通訊- “聰明人，基本需求”
市場晴雨表：美國標準普爾 500 股指期貨
我們相信，如果我們能把 70% 的市場觀點做對，對 30% 的錯誤進行風險控制，我們的生存機會就很大。對於許多失去生命和親人的人來說，Covid19 大流行是悲慘的。但是，購買股票和加密貨幣的熱潮一直在蔓延。
金融市場與現實背道而馳是許多人未能注意到和辨別轉折點的現實。這可能不是明天或明年，但任何精明的基金經理的工作都是調整/預測市場的細微差別，包括政治事務。今年年初，甚至是 6 個月前，許多專家甚至美聯儲都沒有預料到通脹上升或債券購買量減少甚至加息。
我們是最早警告“通脹問題/量化寬鬆減少、大宗商品/石油價格上漲和美國股市價格大幅上漲”與銀行平均 10% 的股票收益相比的人之一；
請參閱我們 2021 年 1 月 3 日的市場報告（第 2、8、9、11 頁）：
- “如果新的拜登政府、100 天接種 1 億次疫苗、財政和基礎設施計劃以及更多刺激措施支持美國人和小企業。 10% 的上漲空間是大多數投資銀行的共識。
- 問題在於通脹預期的程度、中美競爭、伊朗、美聯儲縮減量化寬鬆政策甚至更早的緊縮政策以及對拜登 2022 年以後稅收計劃的擔憂。有什麼需要注意的。
- 2021 年需要關注的關鍵是通貨膨脹和可能上升的利率，這兩者都是股票的避險因素。
- 最近，有人談論由於 Covid19 疫苗導致原油價格上漲，使經濟有可能在 2021 年年中之前恢復到舊規範。
- 原油 3 年圖表：看漲石油趨勢測試 60 美元，因為疫苗將使大多數國家的旅行和重新開放早於 2021 年 6 月成為現實。
- 像在 2020 年 1 月冠狀病毒出現之前那樣縮減美聯儲資產負債表的必要性可能是劇本，因為頂級智囊團擔心如果債務水平上升沒有經濟增長和財政紀律的支持，美元會貶值。”
最近，我們對過去幾個月股市調整幅度 10% 的判斷是錯誤的，因為標準普爾 500 指數和納斯達克指數僅為 -6.3%，納斯達克指數為 -9%。但是當保本是所有投資者在資本收益之前的基本目標時，我們保持謹慎並沒有錯。正如拉迪亞德·吉卜林 (Rudyard Kipling) 曾寫道：“如果你能與凱旋與災難相遇，並一視同仁地對待這兩個冒名頂替者……”
大宗商品和石油總體上呈走高趨勢，可能會有小幅回調，但阻力最小的路徑更高。原油價格為 80 美元，下一步是什麼？依賴於供給側相當穩定，而需求側由於去年的超大規模財政刺激仍在上升。
2009 年油價達到 150 美元的高位可能遙不可及，但並非不可能，儘管未來幾個月可能的目標區間是 90-105 美元；儘管一旦達到 90 美元以上，可能會進行修正。一些專家駁斥了 1970 年代的滯脹，但這可能是成本推動型通脹。由於美聯儲於 11 月 3 日宣布縮減規模，因此一些美國央行官員現在已經略微背離了先前的觀點，這種情況看起來並不是“暫時的”。（我們很久以前就從傳奇交易員保羅·都鐸·瓊斯那裡了解到，在重大事件，本週我們舉行了美聯儲貨幣政策會議，這改變了遊戲規則和美國非農就業人數）
供應鏈衝擊和對原材料的需求都在推高運輸價格並導致成本上升，進而導致更高的通貨膨脹和能源價格上升。零售方面可能會進入商品並導致價格上漲，因為擔心供應短缺可能會導致“囤積心態”。半導體和物流過剩的供應鏈緊縮在接下來的 6 到 18 個月內不會消失，因為台積電是最大的晶圓廠生產商，2024 年只會在亞利桑那州開設一家新的美國工廠。
我們的 2021 年 1 月市場報告第 3 頁強調了“待在家里或在家工作”股票的風險：
我們上個月的報告是關於像 Zoom 的疲軟趨勢這樣的“待在家裡”的股票：“由此我們可以說，一旦疫苗在 2021 年大規模部署，今年大幅上漲的 Covid19 股票可能會正常化。”他們的高估值因恐懼和投機而變得現實，因為如果國際旅行回升，他們的業務使用可能會受到影響。像 Zoom、Docusign、Clorox、Teladoc 這樣的名字。”
年初至今，他們的股價：Zoom -16.3%，Clorox -18.5%，Teladoc -24.9%，Docusign +27.8%。如果我們包括我們的投資組合對沖之一（賣空想法），Peloton 將在 2021 年下跌 -43.2%。
歐洲 10 月份的通貨膨脹率為 4.1%，與美國 5% 的通貨膨脹率相差不遠。尋找更便宜的交易或減少支出可能是一種自然的反應，我們必須注意財務現金流、儲備和品牌資產較弱的公司，以保持高銷售額。我們對除黃金和其他工業金屬以外的大多數商品持看漲觀點，以分散風險，而食品和能源是世界離不開的兩種基本商品。
美元可能處於反彈的早期階段，因為減少通脹和能源成本上升的速度可能比預期更快。美聯儲每月縮減 150 億美元的規模將在 2022 年中期結束，鮑威爾表示，在實現充分就業之前談論加息還為時過早。美國勞工報告，10 月份非農就業人數為 531k，預期為 425k，失業率為 4.6% 對 4.6%，雖然企業盈利可能堅挺，因為技術幫助企業在全球保持競爭力。
然而，CME FedWatch Tool 期貨顯示：2022 年 6 月加息的可能性為 43%，目標利率為 25-50 個基點，到 2022 年 7 月達到 50-75 個基點的可能性為 19%，到 2022 年 9 月達到 50-75 個基點的可能性為 29%，以及到 2022 年 12 月，聯邦基金利率為 75-100 個基點的可能性為 21%。 2022年不會是輕鬆的一年。
在幾個季度內實現充分就業和 2% 通脹率的目標可能足以讓美聯儲采取某些行動，特別是如果商界對原材料、物流和工資成本上升表示擔憂（一個側面風險因素是重新2022 年 2 月之前提名美聯儲主席杰羅姆鮑威爾，另一個人可能會改變決策過程）
比特幣回升至 60,000 美元以上至新高，因為我們知道如果保持 35,000 美元的支撐位會出現另一種情況。中國和印度對加密貨幣的禁令對大多數投資者來說並不關心，因為他們轉移到海外。只有精明的交易者才能在高度波動的雙向市場中進行交易。
美國標準普爾 500 指數的風險回報比率並不大，因為潛在的上行空間為 4689/4845，下行空間為 4210-3980。潛在的 5% 的收益與潛在的 9-14% 的損失。
關鍵支撐位：4539 和 4210（200 DMA）。現在偏向於走高至 4689 和 4845（儘管存在風險），我們對下行風險進行了對沖，直到“通脹大幅上漲、Covid19 死亡率惡化或企業盈利惡化”。 70% 的美國標準普爾 500 指數股票 >20DMA 和 200DMA——大型投資者和企業內部人士的強大購買力。
新的拜登 Covid 疫苗要求要求擁有 100 名或更多員工的公司確保其員工在 2022 年 1 月 4 日之前完全接種疫苗，這是降低大流行傳播風險的積極步驟。這將有助於重新開放——對經濟、企業和消費者都有好處。
2021 年 10 月 1 日市场通讯—“在球所在的地方打球”
鲍比琼斯，1902 年 – 1971 年 9 个大满贯赛冠军
市场晴雨表：美国标准普尔 500 股指期货
- 在美国标准普尔500股指期货升至4545的新高超过我们的4500上行目标1%后，最近几个月的股市反弹看到了更严重的麻烦，然后反转向下突破4450的所有支撑位， 4404 和 4396。
- 高通胀将很快消退的想法只是那些超级看涨的投资者或卖方银行家的一种看法。美联储主席杰罗姆鲍威尔终于不得不说，央行的通胀目标已经实现，美联储缩减资产购买规模是合适的。如果通胀根深蒂固，预计将于 2022 年末至 2023 年加息的时间可能会更快。
- 9 月份的损失是我们预期的，因为我们提到美国标准普尔 500 指数上涨 20% 和纳斯达克指数上涨 19% 是在去年 2020 年上涨 16% 之后的异常值，远远超过历史平均涨幅。两个原因是巨大的刺激和过度乐观，因为年轻的交易者满怀希望地使用移动应用程序双脚跳入。
- 在最近几次经济衰退（1982 年、1990 年代、2000 年互联网泡沫、2008 年全球金融危机）中，美国预算赤字的增幅超过了所有赤字，而且 2020 年的货币政策在 3 个月内的增幅超过了 2009-18 年危机的总和。难怪美国股市已经变成抛物线—上涨超出常态。
- 关键支撑位是 4244 和 4134（200 DMA）。横盘整理的趋势可能是短暂的，因为“阻力最小的路径”是较低的价格。作为全球宏观/多策略基金，除了做空股指期货、SPY ETF指数和选择性弱单股之外，对其他资产类别的“动态资产配置”有助于降低风险，使用看跌期权对冲是有效工具之一。
- 美国和欧洲的通胀率均已加速至数十年来的新高。欧元区升至 3.4%，创下 13 年新高，美国 7 月指数升至 4.2%，核心价格指数（不包括食品和能源）升至 3.6%。减少开支是自然的本能。因此，我们仍然看好除黄金和其他工业金属以外的大多数商品。
- 全球疫苗接种的增加是一个积极的迹象，表明 冠状病毒 至少目前可能得到控制。 2021 年第 4 季度至 2022 年第 1 季度，老年人加强注射将受到关注，这可能会在 9 月至 10 月的修正后形成看涨趋势。
- 我们的规则是—成为趋势的早期买家，但也要认识到趋势何时成熟。 “竞争优势和安全边际”是两个被低估的概念。尽早获利或减少损失并且不要“与牛市或熊市结婚”至关重要。
- 我们正在转向看跌纳斯达克，因为科技股将受到供应链问题的打击，并且至少在下一季度的收入延迟。纳斯达克 100 指数在关键支撑位下方的严重技术崩溃使得专业交易者必须减少损失。另一个原因是很有可能在 2022 年 1 月之前“重新开放旅行”。
- 应避免单一/社交媒体/游戏股票的过度集中投资组合，因为没有人确切知道监管何时到来或新的颠覆性技术何时侵蚀现有公司的市场份额。最近的 Archegos Capital 以 500 亿美元的杠杆押注了一些美国和中国的股票。
- 比特币修正至 50,000 美元以下，因为中国禁止所有会使紧张的投资者获利或减少损失的加密货币（有些人可能试图转移到海外）。有可能重新测试 38,000 美元的支撑位。世界其他地区，特别是美国打算如何监管比特币将很难预测，可能是“黑天鹅”风险事件。只有精明的交易者才能在下跌趋势中获利。
- 美国标准普尔 500 指数的风险回报比率很差，潜在上行空间为 4600，下行空间为 4134 - 3980
- 油价上涨至 74 美元，正在测试 78 美元的阻力位，并在升至 80 美元>油价的途中。一些专家对 1970 年代的滞胀不屑一顾，但这可能只是成本推动型通胀。
- 尽管美国最近将第二季度 国内生产总值GDP 修正为 6.7%，但仍有可能出现 10%> 的修正。
我们的 9 月市场报告还指出了对投资组合对冲的必要性：
“ZM 和 PTON 上个月开盘止损，我们正在关闭它们并开始新的纽蒙特矿业公司的新空头—通常金价上涨然后横盘整理对矿商来说不是好兆头。”
Newmont Mining, NEM：当月股价下跌 14%
我们关于看跌美国股市尤其是纳斯达克 100 股指的 9 月市场报告：
“突破可能是一个错误的突破，因为美联储每月减少 1200 亿美元的资产购买规模不太可能逆转—这是一个何时不是如果的问题。”
此外，我们 9 月关于利率上升预期和看跌债券趋势的报告：
“30 年期美国国债收益率跌至 1% 的低点，10 年期美国国债收益率跌至 1.2%。并反转了。相对于历史标准，债券相对于通货膨胀和股票股息收益率被高估。”
2021年9月1日市场报告 - “想像”
- 尽管通货膨胀率上升，而且几乎所有全球股票指数在 8 月份都上涨，但涨势仍在继续。道琼斯全球指数 2021 年上涨 16%。美国标准普尔 500 指数期货升至 4537 点的新高，比我们的 4500 点上行目标高出 0.8%。
- 在过去几次衰退中（1982 年、1990 年代、2000 年互联网泡沫、2008 年全球金融危机），美国预算赤字的增幅超过了所有赤字，而且 2020 年的货币政策在 3 个月内的增幅超过了 2009-18 年危机期间的总和。难怪美国股市已经变成抛物线—上涨超出常态。
- 美国标准普尔 500 指数和纳斯达克指数今年的涨幅最终达到 20% 和 19%。它已超过过去的平均收益，可能是由于过度乐观和新的“Reddit”交易员加入。
- 关键支撑位是 4450、4396 (50 DMA) 和 4255 之前的阻力位。该趋势可能会在一段时间内横盘整理至更高，但使用看跌期权进行对冲可能是一种对冲工具，因为市场“从来都不是线性的”。
- 由于供应链中断和强劲需求导致价格飙升，通胀升至近 30 年高位—美联储首选衡量 7 月份 PCE 指数为 4.2%，核心价格指数（不包括食品和能源）升至 3.6%。当物价上涨速度快于我们的工资时，减少支出是自然的本能。
- 必须认真对待 新冠病毒 变异病例的增加和更多致命变异的出现。一些投资者忘记了大流行仍在继续—但像 Zoom 和 Peloton 这样“被过度喜爱”的 新冠病毒 股票今年分别下跌了 12% 和 34%。
- 我们认为最好是成为趋势的早期买家，但也要认识到趋势何时成熟。 “竞争优势和安全边际”是投资当今数字世界的两个被低估的概念。
- 对大多数人来说，谨慎投资其他行业/资产类别是明智的，因为即使对于专业的全球宏观投资者来说，这也是一种行之有效的策略。应避免单一股票/社交媒体股票/游戏股票的投资组合过度集中的风险，因为没人知道监管何时到来或一项新的颠覆性技术何时侵蚀现有企业的市场份额。尽早获利或减少损失并且不要“与牛市或熊市联姻”至关重要，尤其是由于行为偏见。最近 Archegos Capital 的崩溃浮现在脑海中（对一些美国和中国股票进行了 500 亿美元的杠杆押注）。
- 比特币在测试 35,000 美元的支撑位后上涨至近 49,000 美元。挑战在于未来中央银行如何采用加密货币，而不仅仅是投资者的看法。只有精明的交易者才能在瞬息万变的市场中获利。
- 美国标准普尔 500 指数的风险回报比率很差，潜在上行空间为 4600，下行空间为 3980：上涨 1.7%，亏损 13.6%，或亏损 8 美元，盈利 1 美元。
- 油价保持在 67 美元的支撑位，并可能因更多热带风暴和潜在的中东紧张局势而上涨至 76 美元以上。 2022 年的滞胀情景是最坏的情况。
- 考虑到今年 20% 的涨幅，10% 的修正并不太难。市场降温将保持对 2022 年反弹将继续的信心，并表明即使政策发生变化，央行的诚信和判断力也不远了。
上图总结了 2 个十年的市场趋势。从互联网到移动时代和加密/数字资产。问题的关键是普通工人的收入可能会落后于过去 20 年科技公司股价和估值的大幅上涨。科学、人工智能、生物技术、空间技术和可再生能源技术的创新和进步不会停止；但资产价格可能不得不暂停，因为我们看到微软、思科、IBM 和亚马逊在 2000 年代初期经历了多年的调整。 1907-1919-1920-1928时代或许有一些线索。过去 5 年的股票反弹是惊人的，因为 2020 年 1 年的收益等于 2016-2020 年 4 年的收益。
- 我们关于商品、小麦、食糖和石油继续看涨趋势的 8 月市场报告：“21 年 9 月小麦期货 – 抛售至 614 点并随着看涨突破处于长期趋势的早期阶段而逆转”； “糖期货 21' 年 10 月 – 中间阶段看涨突破趋势，价格跌至 16.80 并反转至 18.77；我们的目标是 20.93（2017 年的高点）；巴西的霜冻和干旱问题可能会导致减产”；石油期货 21' 年 9 月 – 在测试 67 美元支撑位至 64.85 低点后交易价格为 70 美元；如果供应收紧且美国基础设施协议获得通过，支撑位在 67，阻力位在 78，则可能达到 80-85 美元
大宗商品今年表现良好，在 6 月创下新高后，出现横盘走势或小幅回调。通货膨胀与商品的相关性具有很强的实证关系，这对 CTA（商品交易顾问）基金和商品生产商来说是个好兆头。
重新开盘交易/行业轮换交易：梅西百货的股票表现非常好，正如我们预期自 2021 年 1 月以来重新开盘时的价格为 11.25 美元，并且今年迄今已上涨 99%。鉴于冠状病毒病 Delta 变体的复苏——我们现在持谨慎态度，但仍然看涨，因为它仍低于 5 年高点 40 美元。
流动性 - 保持警惕并随着事实的变化而改变以适应条件：我们上个月写了阿里巴巴和百度等中国大型科技股的看跌趋势。有理由相信抛售在 6 个月后接近尾声，并可能出现转机。但是，在横向移动的新规定的调整期内，可能会有上行空间。需要精确的入门级别。
2021年8月3日市场报告 - ‘像水’
- 标准普尔 500 股指期货在 7 月 29 日创下 4422.50 的新高，比我们的 4404 目标（在 2021 年 1 月的报告中设定）高出 0.4%。道指在月底创出新高 35082，纳斯达克 100 指数亦是如此。
- VIX 或“恐惧”指数低点为 14.6，而不是我们在 2006、2014 和 2018 年预期的 13.29，这是在波动性逆转之前测试的关键水平。标普 500 指数推高至 4500 点并非不可能，因为中国股市和加密货币因进一步监管风险而流出的资金可能有利于美股。
- 关键支撑位是高低中点 4321、前阻力位 4255 和 4292（50 天移动平均线）。这种趋势可能会横盘整理一段时间。使用看跌期权对冲可能是可行的。
- 随着美国 CPI、PCE、家庭和食品价格上涨，通货膨胀率升至 13 年高位。价格的急剧升值可能会让市场和美联储在年底前感到意外，尤其是在气候变化导致天气不稳定的情况下。最近的调查显示，约 86% 的消费者因通胀上升而减少支出。 （以下来自圣路易斯联储的 PCE 图表）
- Covid Delta新冠肺炎增量变体病例在全球范围内上升是一个主要问题，因为该变异现在存在于 132 个国家/地区。中国还在北京、湖南、河南、海南、湖北和南京等15个城市报告了320多例病例（来源：环球时报）。在美国，CDC 最近的数据显示，高于去年夏天的平均每日病例峰值 72,790 例。最大的风险是中国和美国：呈指数级爆发的疫情将导致封锁和突然的“避险”事件。
- 在 4422 的水平上，由于大规模的财政和货币刺激以及疫苗的发现，今年的收益将接近 18%，远高于历史正常水平，甚至优于 2020 年 16% 的收益。大多数股票因过度乐观而上涨。
- 纳斯达克 100 指数触及 15134 点，超出了我们设定的 14400 点水平的目标 5%（从 2018 年到 2020 年 2 月的走势扩大了 2 倍）。这是自 2018 年以来的一个大动作，约为 6000 点。两年内增长了 152%。目前，我们对纳斯达克保持中立，因为大多数科技股的风险回报率都不具吸引力。不能排除纳斯达克修正至 13,600 - 12,500 点的可能性。
- 应继续向其他部门/资产类别多元化。太多投资者因持有太多单一股票/社交媒体驱动的股票（如 GameStop、AMC 等）而承担了太多风险。未能提前获利或减少亏损将导致糟糕的结果，因为牛市的“锚定”站稳脚跟。
- 尽管美联储采取鸽派立场，但由于 2023 年加息的预期正在上升，美元仍出现逆转。由于美联储不采取行动，债券市场保持低收益率——债券投资者自 2010 年量化宽松以来“有条件”。
- 由于从中国到美国的新规定可能会阻碍投资者的信心，比特币保持在 30-40,000 美元之间。 20,000 水平可能是交易者购买的更好水平。气候更具挑战性，但更多机构投资者因“害怕错过”而看好加密货币。
- 标准普尔 500 指数的风险回报比率不佳，潜在上涨空间为 4500，下跌空间为 3980，上涨 2.2%，而下跌 14% 的比率为 0.17-1。
- 油价下跌以测试我们对 67 美元的支撑并反弹至 70 美元。由于 Delta 变量和油价上涨（滞胀情况），增长率可能会恶化。
- 由于中央银行的新刺激措施，在有意义的 10% 回调之后，反弹可以恢复；但涨势会超过当年的高价吗？
美国标准普尔 500 指数在 6 月 30 日创下 4302 点的新高，比我们的 4244 点目标高出 1.3%。由于交易员重新买入科技板块，道指未能突破上一个高点 35091。
大多数时候市场不会按计划进行，我们不得不期待意外。关键支撑位在 4203（50 天移动平均线）。随着 4250 向我们的年底目标 4404（斐波那契目标 161.8%）突破，趋势可能会走高。我们错误地认为，即使在通胀数据上升（见下图）且油价高于 70 美元的情况下，我们的短期目标 4244 实现后也会发生回调。它可能会错过 4404 或突破该水平。
无论如何，重要的是“由合理决策支持的行动，而不是空谈”。在 4400 的水平上，今年的收益将是 18%，可能已经达到了（高于历史标准）；好于 2020 年 16% 的增长。从我们的角度来看，投资优势变得不那么明显，并且会利用高价来获利，因为成为趋势的早期买家并驾驭它是至关重要的，但也要认识到趋势何时成熟。我们为具有潜在增长潜力的资产支付的价格至关重要，必须将“安全边际”考虑在内。
纳斯达克 100 指数触及 14503 点并超过我们的目标 14,400 点水平 0.7%（从 2018 年到 2020 年 2 月的走势扩大了 2 倍）。这似乎是一个分水岭，因为 2018 年，纳斯达克 100 指数在 2018 年 12 月约为 6000 点。这是 2 & 1/2 年内的重大举措。目前，我们对纳斯达克和大多数科技股保持中立，因为风险回报率现在不那么有吸引力。
不能排除未来几个月纳斯达克指数更深地回调至 13,600 - 12,500 点的可能性。鉴于增长预测，大多数科技股在估值的基础上大多变得不那么有吸引力。即使是勒芒比赛中的跑车也需要停下来休息。大多数经济数据都创下新高——GDP、ISM、就业和通胀。最好回忆一下老子的名言：“如果他不选边站，他不会输掉一场战斗。”
即将于 7 月 2 日公布的美国非农就业人数可能会再次推动“冒险”，因为预计将创造 690,000 个工作岗位，失业率将下降 5.7%。电动汽车领头羊特斯拉表现不佳，而竞争对手通用汽车和福特则开始推出新的电动汽车车型。随着旅行的恢复，航空股和波音公司应保持坚挺。 BYND 或太阳能股票等 ESG 股票现在可能比电动汽车股票提供更多价值。除能源部门外，公用事业和耐用消费品是其他可行的选择。
鉴于当前的市场水平和相关风险，优质股票、债券、货币和商品的投资组合将更具弹性。 2021 年，对加密货币和单一股票名称的过度投机引发了投资者的自满情绪。由于对 2022-2023 年加息的预期正在上升，外汇市场看到美元在 FOMC 会议后出现逆转。
比特币经历了一个糟糕的月份，因为它曾短暂跌破 30,000 美元，然后又回升至 36,000 美元。尽管看涨的交易者试图谈论它，但趋势看起来很疲软。中国已经开始禁止比特币挖矿。在错过我们之前 70-72,000 美元的目标之后，对于那些希望从黄金和现金中实现多元化的人来说，跌至 20,000 美元的水平可能是一个很好的买入机会。最新加入比特币交易领域的大型机构投资者是索罗斯基金管理公司，他是资产类别双向交易的精明交易者。
美国企业财报季从 7 月开始。与市场领导者的任何分歧都可能表明标准普尔 500 指数很难上涨，并且可能会回调高达 10%。油价升至 74 美元（我们的中间目标）至 80 美元以及比特币跌至 30,000 美元以下可能导致“避险”事件抛售。长期来看，由于全球央行史无前例的刺激措施和大规模财政政策，涨势可能会再次恢复。预测是不可能的，但充其量是预测。
我们 6 月份的市场报告还指出了投资组合对冲的必要性：
'一些对冲或看跌卖空潜力：Docusign、DOCU、Peloton、PTON、Zoom、ZM、EDU新东方教育 + LVS拉斯维加斯金沙：
本月，由于 Covid19 在出售其拉斯维加斯业务后对其亚洲业务的影响，我们将加入拉斯维加斯金沙集团。
下面看拉斯维加斯金沙集团的6个月图表，LVS拉斯维加斯金沙股价在6月份下跌了约5.9%；延续了自 3 月 15 日高点 66 美元左右的下跌趋势。下一个支撑位似乎是 48 美元，这是一个锁定利润的地方。
上個月，除 Alphabet 和 Facebook 外，大多數美國大盤股市場領先的科技股均走低。電動汽車領頭羊特斯拉表現不佳，而競爭對手通用汽車和福特則開始憑藉新的電動汽車戰略和車型崛起。由於英美旅行可能很快重新開放，航空公司股和波音公司繼續上漲。
標準普爾 500 指數在 5 月 7 日創下 4238 點的新高，僅比我們的中期目標 4244 點低 0.14%。道指和納斯達克指數接近前期高點，但無法超越。這種背離可能是標準普爾 500 指數可能面臨強大阻力並可能回調的信號。油價上漲至 70 美元以上和比特幣進一步下跌可能會在短期內引發拋售。
4050 和 4250 阻力位的關鍵支撐位是關鍵。由於我們的中期目標 4404（161.8% 斐波納契目標）可能是年底的一個加價，因此趨勢正在失去一些動力。重新開放的夏季月份可能不會像計劃的那樣順利，機構投資者將通過出售期貨來對沖。拋售至 3972 關鍵支撐位的可能性不大，因為它將較近期高點回調 6.3%。在過去的市場歷史上，從 4250 點回調至 3850 點 10% 不會令人震驚。大流行中的強勁市場可能已使大多數交易者重新轉向主要看牛市。這次反彈的科技市場領導者需要恢復更高，以給整體股市帶來信心。預測是不可能的，但充其量是預測。
儘管近期阻力最小的路徑更高，但我們對引發獲利回吐的風險事件保持警惕。任何不停運轉的跑車都需要休息，即使勒芒賽車也只有 24 小時——因此，牛市中 10% 的回調是正常的，甚至是健康和良好的購買機會。
納斯達克 100 指數的上行空間可能升至 14,400 點的目標水平（從 2018 年到 2020 年 2 月的走勢擴大了 2 倍。儘管由於大多數科技股在 2020 年強勁反彈並被高估，可能會出現更深的回調至 13,080 – 12,500）以“在家工作”為新常態的從眾心態。
如果油價突破 70-80 美元且 10 年期債券收益率上升至 2%，通脹擔憂不會消失並引發資本轉移。債券和外匯市場與股票交易員站在同一邊，相信低利率會持續更長時間。時間會告訴我們的。
比特幣升至 65,000 美元的高位，低於我們 70,000 美元至 72,000 美元的中間目標區域，低於 40,000 美元支撐位的大幅回調表明內部人士正在獲利，而新的“信徒”正在逢低買入。 BTC 的這種拋售可以部分解釋金價上漲。泡沫市場的典型行為模式。我們可能是錯的，因為 BTC 幾乎沒有基礎知識可供研究，因為買家可能會再次加入。
我们的 5 月市场报告还指出了对投资组合对冲的必要性：
上个月，我们在铜图表上显示了我们预期的“10 年高点 4.50”（以黄色虚线表示），该目标在 5 月初已被超过，现在交易于 4.65:
一些对冲或看跌的卖空潜力：多库西涅，DOCU，Peloton，PTON，Zoom，ZM + EDU
Docusign和Peloton均在3月份收盘走弱，但对去年的巨大上涨的支持接近50％，去年的上涨推动了DOCU 338％和PTON 600％。 Zoom Video，ZM上涨590％。随着中国法规限制在线教育公司，我们将新东方教育技术有限公司（EDU）添加为新的卖空套期保值工具。此外，关于EDU上销售数字膨胀的谈论与2020年Luckin Coffee瑞幸咖啡 的崩溃非常相似。部门轮流继续进行重新开放交易，这些公司都没有“垄断”权。
短期仍将维持在4050-4125的临时目标区域，4100位于趋势高点并回落，因为油价保持高位且债券收益率突破2％。尽管设置尾随止损限制时需要谨慎。标普500指数可能在年底前突破至4180-4400，但那可能要高出10％，并且需要强大的催化剂。 （有可能，纳斯达克100指数的上行目标可能会上升至14,400水平的目标（从2018年到2020年2月的变动的2倍延伸。尽管由于大多数科技股在2020年过分艰难地上涨且估值过高，可能会发生更深的修正至12,500点） ）。
到目前为止，通货膨胀风险很低，但10年期国债收益率却在上升，如果涨幅超过1.25 – 1.5％，则市场可能会预期美联储政策会发生变化，并可能成为股市的避险工具。石油价格大幅上涨至60美元以上可能是值得关注的一种资产类别，这可能会对利率收益率产生更高的影响。
关键支撑将在3080之前的3480处作为关键支撑。对“错过/ FOMO”的恐惧加剧了投机热。可能会先进行小幅修正，然后再推高至3525-50，然后在10月底/ 11月初发生大的逆转。由于过度的投机活动背离基本面，该指数在9月初始目标2753（200天移动平均线），并在10月之前目标在2480以下。